Bitcoin is Heading to an important window The Bank of Japan is preparing its most significant policy action in decades. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its meeting on December 18-19. This is a level not seen since 1995 and a clear sign that Japan is continuing to withdraw from its ultra-loose monetary policy.
This upcoming event is sparking some conversation among cryptocurrency traders. Similar policy moves In Japan, this has repeatedly coincided with the start of Bitcoin price crashes.
Japan’s interest rate hike and repeated Bitcoin selling pattern
Cryptocurrency market observers have been quick to highlight disturbing patterns involving: Bitcoin and BOJ. Since 2024, whenever the bank raises interest rates, Bitcoin’s price action has experienced deep and relatively quick corrections.
For example, in March 2024, Bitcoin fell about 23% following Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007. While rates fell about 26% after a similar surge in July, the January 2025 hike saw a steeper decline of more than 30%.
Cryptocurrency Analyst 0xNobler expressed concerns, It was noted that if this historical trend repeats, Bitcoin could fall below the $70,000 level shortly after the upcoming December decision. The chart he shared shows how each rate hike coincided with local market highs, followed by a sharp decline. The consistency of these movements has turned what might have been dismissed as a coincidence into a data point that many traders are now taking seriously.
interest rates in japan
The pressure extends beyond just the cryptocurrency industry’s response. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, and the Bank of Japan’s tightening measures have implications for global liquidity markets. Higher Japanese interest rates strengthen the yen, which in turn reduces excess capital that can flow into risky assets.
Another cryptocurrency commentator known as AndrewBTC echoes this view. Point out Bitcoin’s repetition After 2024, each time the BOJ raised it, it fell by 20-31%. He warned in December that another rate hike could have similar results and confirmed the $70,000 rate. Possible downward target When a pattern repeats itself.
Bitcoin/US Dollar. Source: @cryptoctlt on X
Bitcoin Beyond Long-Term Support: Not Everyone Is Bearish
Despite growing concerns about an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the outlook for Bitcoin is not universally negative. For example, analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin Currently interacting Monthly EMA-21 is a level that has always served as a launching pad in previous cycles.
Based on this structure, Pillows predicted that Bitcoin could surge to between $100,000 and $105,000 in the near term before another price drop.
As the December meeting approaches, Bitcoin is caught between a troubling pattern and resilient technical support. Whether Japan’s next interest rate hike will lead to another immediate sell-off or allow for a temporary rally could determine how Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market close out the year.
Bitcoin / US Dollar. Source: @TedPillows on X
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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