Fidelity timmer calls $60,000 cycle bottom as BTC holds $68,795

Bitcoin price today is trading around $68,795 and has declined slightly over the past 24 hours after testing the $69,400 resistance zone. The move comes as Julian Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, called Bitcoin’s $60,000 low the bottom of the cycle and predicted a new bull market would begin after a period of consolidation.

Fidelity’s Timmer calls $60,000 cycle bottom

Timmer wrote that Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 last week met the support zone he predicted months ago when he identified the end of a four-year bull market. “No one knows if $60,000 is the low, but my guess is that $60,000 is the low, and after a few months of support and compensation, the next cyclical bull market will begin,” Timmer said on X.

He argued that Bitcoin’s “only” winter drop to $60,000 was relatively shallow and shows the asset is maturing. As Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized, volatility will decrease and fluctuations will become less dramatic. In a previous analysis, Timmer noted that October’s all-time high of $125,000, after a 145-week rally, was “fairly in line with expectations” based on the past four-year cycle.

Timmer predicted that ensuing bear markets tend to last about a year, with 2026 expected to be a “quiet period” with support in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. Based on the mathematical harmonization of past cycles, he believes that future waves could eventually take Bitcoin to new highs after the current consolidation phase.

Spot inflow returns and open interest rises

Bitcoin open interest rose 2.09% to $45.36 billion, according to Coinglass, suggesting traders are rebuilding their positions after the February 5 liquidation event. Volume decreased by 12.47% to $55.27 billion, indicating a decline in participants, but not panic selling. Net inflows on February 14 were $12.9 million, according to spot flows, a reversal from heavy outflows that weighed on prices earlier in the month.

The long/short ratio is still elevated at 1.59 on Binance and 1.55 on OKX, indicating that leverage is still biased in the bullish direction despite the 45% drawdown from October highs. Top traders’ positions were long at $184.69 million and short at $64.34 million on the hourly time frame, indicating that large accounts are likely to recover.

The combination of increased open interest and spot inflows suggests the market is stabilizing after a sharp correction. If both indicators are positive at the same time, it usually indicates accumulation rather than distribution.

Price is unified below all major EMAs

On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below all major moving averages. The 20-day EMA is $74,124, the 50-day EMA is $81,594, the 100-day EMA is $88,177, and the 200-day EMA is $94,353. All four EMAs remain stacked to the downside, forming a clear ceiling of resistance.

The graph shows:

• Supertrend is bearish at $79,990, confirming downside trend
• Prices range from $68,000 to $70,000
• $74,124 resistance at 20-day EMA
• Advocated for $60,000 in aid on February 5th

Bitcoin tested Timmer’s expected support zone of $60,000 and rebounded sharply, rising more than 14% from its lows. This movement confirms that demand exists at a lower level, supporting the cyclical bottom theory. However, the price is still firmly below the 20-day EMA, indicating that the correction phase is not yet complete.

A daily close above $74,124 would result in a reversal of the 20-day EMA and the first sign of trend exhaustion. Until that happens, despite stabilization, the structure remains bearish. Timmer’s prediction of “a few months of support and consolidation” is consistent with current price trends that indicate consolidation rather than impulsive moves in either direction.

Hourly chart shows trading within a range

On the 1-hour chart, we can see that Bitcoin is trapped in a narrow range between $68,000 and $70,000. Parabolic SAR is located at $69,395 and acts as an immediate resistance level. The RSI is neutral at 61.53 and there is no obvious directional bias as the price moves within the consolidation zone.

The structure shows:

• Price forms a low based on $66,000
• Resistance at $69,395 limits upside attempts
• Range compression showing consolidation

Buyers are defending the $68,000 level, laying the groundwork for the sharp recovery from $60,000. Sellers continue to reject prices above $69,400, preventing a breakout towards $70,000. This narrow range, with neither buyers nor sellers able to establish control, reflects Timmer’s prediction of “support and compensation.”

A break above $69,395 will reverse the SAR and bring the $70,000 level back within the range. A breakdown below $68,000 could retest the $66,000 support and challenge Timmer’s expected consolidation zone lower bound at $65,000.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise?

The next move will depend on whether Bitcoin can hold $68,000 and move above the 20-day EMA of $74,124.

• Bullish Case: If volume sustains, spot inflows continue, and the price closes above $74,124, the 20-day EMA will reverse and $81,594 will move back within the range. This validates the timmer’s cycle bottom call and signals the start of the next accumulation phase.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $68,000 will retest $66,000 and if selling pressure returns, we can expect further downside towards $60,000. Losing $60,000 invalidates Timmer’s cycle bottom theory.