The price of Bitcoin ended last year in the red despite hitting record highs, surpassing six-figure valuations several times. Although the market leader has had a successful start to 2026, concerns are still swirling about BTC’s prospects in the coming months, especially with regard to the four-year cycle theory.
Why $65,000 Is Crucial This Cycle
In a recent post on the The market expert said the top cryptocurrency has taken a breather over the past few months and is likely to lag behind other assets such as gold in 2025.
Timmer said Bitcoin has moved away from its historically steep power-law trajectory and is instead following the Internet S-curve. This structural change also opens the door to ongoing conversations about Bitcoin’s typically cyclical behavior.
According to several experts, the traditional Bitcoin four-year halving cycle is now over and a new structural bull wave appears to be taking root in the market. Defenders of the claim that “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over” often cite institutional adoption and look to exchange-traded funds as evidence of a new bullish market structure.
While Timmer agrees that the relevance of the BTC halving event is decreasing, the Fidelity director of Global Macro rejected the idea that the top cryptocurrency will not see another bear market. “I’m skeptical of the idea that there won’t be any more bear markets, not that the halving is losing its power (I agree),” Timmer said.
Speaking from a technical perspective, Timmer identified $65,000, near previous cycle highs, as a critical level for Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, the next most important level is the power law trend line around $45,000.
Source: @TimmerFidelity on XFor context, the power law is a mathematical model that suggests that Bitcoin’s growth follows a predictable and consistent trajectory. Often used in price analysis to identify key levels, this indicator shows the correlation between BTC value and time.
Timmer noted that the power law trend line is far from BTC’s current price, but could move towards $65,000 if the flagship cryptocurrency enters a prolonged consolidation phase next year. This could make the $65,000 level a more important area for Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $90,520, with no significant movement over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
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