A new analysis of the contributor base of Bitcoin Core, the reference software for Bitcoin Node, reveals an alarming trend: fewer and fewer active developers are consistently participating.
Analyst known as Secure Sovereing in X, We investigated the activities of 7,604 people. Based on public GitHub data, including proposed changes to the code, who has interacted with Bitcoin core code in the past 15 years (pull request), reviews, comments, events, etc.
Of the total number of registrations, Only 935 developers are still activeMeanwhile, 87.7% abandoned the project after at least a year of inactivity.
The data often also show superficial involvement.
- 42.5% donated once and never again.
- 68.3% never suggested direct changes to the code, but limited themselves to commenting and reviewing contributions from others.
This is because much of the initial interest It cannot be turned into a sustainable technological effort.
High turnover rate even among experienced developers
One of the most sensitive aspects of the analysis is that the output is not limited to occasional collaborators.
Attrition rates are high even among the most influential developers. The authors are pull request Over 50% of proposals accepted Showing an exit rate of 83.5%On the other hand, for those who only participated without submitting a code, the abandonment rate reached 90.2%.
This behavior is indicative of a deeper structural problem. Unlike projects with formal foundations or clear hierarchical structures, Bitcoin Core development relies on informal coordination, extensive peer review, and high technical standards. Increase friction to maintain participation over time.
The analysis concluded that the group of active developers is not growing. But gradually reduce.
Bitcoin has demonstrated technical and social resilience, but with a shrinking contributor base, Increase and/or concentrate the load on fewer maintainers And it slows down software evolution.
Rather than posing an immediate threat, this data raises fundamental questions. If developer retention continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin’s technology governance could face increasing tension in the long term.
