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After Bitcoin recorded on the green for the third consecutive September, we will see if the assets can draw positive returns for the seventh consecutive October.
Bitcoin’s October month month strength is usually supported by its weakness in September, but BTC’s 5% increase I’ll be making some changes to the setup last month.
Still, the possibility that the “Up-to-Ber” story could unfold again again appears solid for several reasons, according to 21Shares Crypto Research strategist Matt Mena.
Private employers reduced their employment by 32,000 in September, according to a report by the ADP on Wednesday. This is a “negative side surprise” that raises expectations for another Fed rate reduction. According to CME FedWatch, the chances of 25bps cut on October 29th are 99% tool.
“As liquidity expectations rise, BTC tends to outperform, benefiting both as a digital gold hedge at a point of fiscal uncertainty and as a high beta-risk asset when liquidity returns,” Mena told me.
Recent market actions highlight this resilience, with Bitcoin increasing from $108,000 to $118,000 by noon on Wednesday. Assets are increasing by 26% per year.
As for other economic data, the latest government shutdown means that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to provide employment reports that are scheduled to be released on Friday.
“(Expected) short-term choppies from data blackouts and policy uncertainty, but the background will be risk-on if the Fed is on track for October cuts and dollars to soften – historically support Bitcoin.”
Beyond October, the fourth quarter is Bitcoin’s strongest. This trend was helped by the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in 2023 and the lead-up to Trump’s election victory last November.
Zach Pandl of Grayscale Research Head said he hopes that BTC, ETH and SOL will create new highs in Q4 as long as the Senate maintains the laws and macro conditions of the market structure.
Ether, which was soaked in $3,800 last week, exceeded $4,300 today (12% off the highest ever). This asset has grown 30% so far in 2025, but ETH on average had no BTC profits in October (+4.7% vs. +20.4% of BTC).
“The biggest risk for both Crypto and the traditional market is Hawkish Pivot from the Fed,” Pandl told me.
As for where Bitcoin will land at the end of 2025, last week’s LEDN CIO John Glover looked at differences in tech analysts. He believes BTC could reach up to $145,000 by the end of the year, but another camp believes the bull market ended when Bitcoin nearly reached its $125,000 target.
“I still have a higher price and I remain unshakable in my view that immersing $100,000 or slightly below is an opportunity to buy,” added Glover. “But one view that we all share is that once this bullish cycle is complete, the bare market will soon begin.”
As conditions fluctuate, investors have more tools to quickly navigate this asset class.
