Important insights:
- Long-term ETH price holders increased their wallets by 22% despite unrealized losses, reducing their cost base.
- Ethereum approaches the breakout zone with RSI neutral, volume rise and tightening of the bollinger band.
- As traders are positioned far above Pectra upgrades and market movements, the volume surge for options is 75%.
Over the past two months, clear changes have emerged in Ethereum (ETH) on-chain behavior. Data from Cryptoquant showed that long-term ETH holders, defined by addresses that steadily receive ETH without major sales, had strengthened their holdings by May 3 from 1553 million ETH on March 10 to 19.03 million ETH.
This indicates a 22.54% increase in holdings during the period of price weakness. This activity came when Ethereum fell below the average input price for many of these wallets.
Source: x
As of March 10th, ETH was trading at $1,866.70. This was the realised price of getting a wallet was around $2,026. Rather, these wallets continued to accumulate, reducing their average cost base to $1,980 as of May 3rd.
ETH accumulation is strong despite losses
Ethereum prices have been under pressure since peaking at $4,107 in December 2024. ETH has since been declining monthly due to subsequent revisions. However, an increase in holdings from long-term addresses indicates that they are not acting on short-term pricing measures.
These coins are used in these wallets and are kept for more than 155 days. They have been acting consistently: add more ETH and they don’t sell.
“The behavior reflects structural beliefs and clear expectations for short-term assessments,” says @ORO_CRYPTO, which refers to data tracked with Cryptoquant accumulation metrics.
ETH price levels tighten and traders monitor price breakouts
Ethereum currently trades in a narrow zone between $1,783 and $1,831. The Bollinger band is tightened and hovered just below the resistance level at a price of $1,941. The $1,739 20-day moving average continues to provide support.
Source: TradingView
The market momentum remained neutral. The RSI was 54.63 just below the trend line of 55.50 at press. These numbers indicated that ETH was not over-bought or sold. At the same time, the volume has been increasing since mid-April. In other words, as attention grows, a bigger movement is ongoing.
Derivatives market suggests bullish expectations
Derivative activities around Ethereum have been featured. Total trading volume rose 26.51% to $46.3 billion, but open interest rates were less than 1.13%, and now it is $21.9 billion. In the options market, volume rose almost 75% to $357.69 million, indicating that traders are preparing for price volatility.
Shorts have been boosted by their long positions on major exchanges. At the time of writing, Binance’s long-term ratio was 2.24 and OKX was 2.04.
Additionally, the ratio was high among Binance’s top trader accounts of 2.76. This implies that most traders were still betting on the possibility of an upward trend in contrast to decline.
Source: Coinglass
The liquidation over the past 24 hours reached $40.67 million, bringing the $80 million shorter position. Long settlements were generally high, but losing short settlements over multiple time frames suggested upward pressure.
Chartwatchers are noting the toning pattern of price action. According to an analyst called Thecryptomist, Ethereum forms an upward triangle, and price movements within small wedges can quickly cause a breakout.
“The $1,950 will remain programmed next,” Cryptomist pointed out, identifying it as an important level to look at.
Ethereum upgrades draw market attention to ETH prices
The Ethereum Network is set up for an upgrade called Pectra on May 7th. There is one notable change, and the validator’s staking limit is increased from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH. Additionally, the number of data blobs per block can increase, increasing throughput and efficiency.
It’s attracting investors’ attention ahead of the upgrade. “Today, buying $eth is like buying BTC for $4,000,” said analyst @TedPylows.
The results show that long-term accumulation, derivative activity, and increased changes in the protocol all suggest that Ethereum is approaching a critical period.
