Ethereum (ETH) has slipped 5.5% over the past seven days, and today’s decline is up 1.4%, with prices close to $4,400. However, despite the turbulence, derivative data shows significant resilience.
According to Cryptoquant, Binance’s Ethereum Open Interest (OI) remains stable at over $8.4 billion, even after ETH fell below $4,400 this week.
Typically, Sharp Price Pullback causes a significant drop in OI as traders rewind their leveraged positions. However, this time, ETH traders are holding tightly, suggesting either a hope for rebound or a lack of conviction in further downside momentum.
Moderation in OI contractions has dropped by just 3.4% in 24 hours compared to -6.25% earlier this week, further supporting the idea that offensive deleverage is losing steam.
Ethereum buyers absorb pressure despite negative flow
Market sentiment remains bearish, with Binance’s nettaker volume consistently being negative, between -1.08 billion and -1.1 billion. This indicates that the seller remains aggressive. However, the fact that the OI is stable suggests that the buyer is quietly absorbing the pressure rather than completely retreating.
Spot market activity adds another layer of optimism. Daily exchange withdrawals regularly exceed 120,000 ETH across platforms such as Binance and Kraken. Such outflows reduce sell-side liquidity and suggest long-term accumulation strategies.
Whether these flows reflect institutional management moves, whether or not they reflect retail positioning, they tighten replacement reserves and create conditions that are not suitable for extended sale.
ETH's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview
A possible bear trap before “Up to Ver”?
Technically, Ethereum’s charts resemble bearish head and shoulder formation, and also raise alarms downsides. However, some analysts have argued that this could be one of the “biggest bear traps” formed in the market. Crypto strategist Johnny Wu pointed out the $3,800-$4,100 range as the main support zone.
If ETH holds above this level, traders can be sidelined by bearish feelings and forced to re-enter at a higher level, promoting an upward inversion. Historically, October has often brought relief rallying by traders called “up-to-bars.”
For now, Ethereum is facing the challenge of shaking the pressures of September while retaining critical support. If buyers continue to absorb sell-side flow and OI stability persists, they can set the stage for a bullish counterattack heading into the final quarter of 2025.
ChatGpt cover image, TradingView’s Ethusd chart
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