ETH, liquidity cluster tests recovery above $4,200

Ethereum price is trading around $3,946 today, holding modest gains after rebounding from recent lows. The token remains supported by the long-term uptrend line, but faces pressure from clustered resistance levels. Traders are currently considering liquidity data, currency flows, and macro catalysts ahead of key economic events in the United States.

Buyers protect the uptrend line

The daily chart shows that Ethereum is respecting the uptrend line from July and buyers are stepping in near the $3,850 zone. This rising base has been a key structure that has contained ETH price movements for months, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

ETH continues to struggle below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, with resistance levels at $4,032 and $4,134. Above these levels, the downtrend line from September highs near $4,800 looms as a structural ceiling. Until these levels recover, Ethereum price action will remain compressed between long-term support and short-term resistance.

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The RSI is hovering around 45, reflecting neutral momentum after weeks of selling pressure. A sustained move above 50 would signal the beginning of a possible bullish reversal.

Currency flows suggest short-term relief

Spot currency flow data highlights modest inflows of $24.7 million on October 24, a small change compared to weeks of sustained outflows. While this suggests traders are focused on taking profits, the overall trend of outflows since September still reflects a decline in currency supply, which often supports prices.

Ethereum price volatility reflects these fluctuations in flows, with downside tests towards $3,800 coinciding with days of high inflows. A resumption of outflows would increase confidence in holding the trend line and provide room for a rally towards $4,200.

$4,200 liquidity cluster attracts traders

A liquidity heatmap shared by market analysts shows that buy and sell orders with a density above $4,200 have piled up, creating a zone that could accelerate short covering. Conditions in October have been generally bearish, increasing the risk of a sharp decline if the ETH price regains the resistance zone.

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Macro catalysts add weight to this setup. CPI data released today could increase volatility across risk assets, while next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting could provide direction for liquidity flows. With the US-China summit looming, expectations for a trade deal are influencing investors’ risk appetite.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?

Ethereum price prediction remains balanced. Bulls need to defend the $3,850 to $3,880 trendline zone to keep the long-term structure intact. A clean break above $4,134 and a follow-through towards $4,200 would trigger bullish momentum and leave room for a retest of $4,400.

On the downside, if ETH fails to maintain its upward base, it could face further challenges at the 200-day EMA near $3,576. This level provides the last buffer before the broader uptrend risks break down.

For now, Ethereum price movements are driven by flows and macro catalysts. If outflows resume and liquidity rises above $4,200, ETH momentum could swing back in favor of buyers. However, if it is rejected here, the correction phase will likely be extended and volatility will likely remain elevated until the FOMC’s decision.

Ethereum Forecast Table (October 25, 2025)

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