Ethereum (ETH) continues to trade near $3,884, with limited momentum after repeated failures to break above the $3,900 resistance zone. Price action reflects consolidation within a narrow range as traders wait for a clear breakout signal. Additionally, technical indicators reveal cautious sentiment, with ETH trading below the key exponential moving average (EMA).
Integration phase amidst technical barriers
The 4-hour chart shows ETH struggling below the major EMAs 20, 50, 100, and 200 centered between $3,890 and $4,134. This correction highlights persistent bearish pressure. Immediate resistance lies at $3,944, followed by $4,033 and $4,134. A clean break above the $4,254 Fibonacci level could restore bullish momentum. In that case, potential upside targets include $4,476 and $4,758.
ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the downside, Ethereum faces important support near $3,750, which coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. Further weakness could expose the 0.382 retracement zone of the previous buying reaction at $3,443. A continued decline below $3,750 could signal an extended correction phase towards the $3,440 area.
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Open interest signals active market participation
The Ethereum futures market reflects increased speculative interest. Open interest increased from less than $10 billion in February to more than $43 billion by October 23, 2025.
This steady rise suggests high leverage participation and consistent engagement by both institutional investors and retail traders. As of the latest data, ETH is trading around $3,805, but open interest remains high, indicating potential volatility.
Additionally, strong open interest combined with lateral price movements often result in sharp changes in direction. If ETH gains momentum above $4,100, traders could see rapid short covering. However, failure to recover this zone could trigger a prolonged liquidation and intensify short-term volatility.
Foreign exchange flows and underlying wallet movements
Ethereum’s on-chain data shows that outflows have decreased since July, suggesting that selling pressure is easing. The modest inflow of $2.64 million in October suggests bearish momentum is cooling as investors monitor the liquidity situation. Historically, extended periods of outflows have coincided with accumulation and price recovery, while inflows indicate a possible correction.
Importantly, the Ethereum Foundation recently transferred approximately 160,000 ETH, worth approximately $610 million, to a new multi-signature safe wallet. The move, described as a planned Treasury transition, emphasizes continued security enhancements within the ecosystem.
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Technical outlook for Ethereum (ETH) price
Key levels remain well-defined heading into late October as Ethereum consolidates within a narrow range.
- Top level: $3,944 (50 EMA), $4,033 (100 EMA), and $4,134 (200 EMA) form immediate resistance barriers. A decisive breakout of the $4,254 Fibonacci level could pave the way for $4,476 and $4,758 in the short term.
- Lower price level: $3,750 acts as the first support along the 0.236 Fib retracement, followed by the 0.382 level at $3,443 marking a major demand zone.
The technical setup suggests that ETH is compressing within a symmetric consolidation phase after reversing from the $4,758 swing high. Price remains capped below the cluster EMA, indicating that bulls need to reclaim the $4,100-$4,200 zone to reverse the current low-high structure. If the price continues to close above this area, bullish control will be confirmed once again.
Will Ethereum resume its uptrend?
Ethereum’s next direction will depend on how long buyers can defend the $3,750 to $3,440 support corridor. A clean breakout above $4,254 could cause increased volatility and draw interest in new leverage targeting above $4,758. However, if support cannot be maintained, more severe corrections may occur before recovery is attempted.
Historically, Ethereum has shown strong rebounds after long periods of decline around major Fibonacci levels. We expect volatility to increase into November as open interest and trading volumes remain high. For now, ETH is located in a pivotal zone, and the recovery of $4,100 will determine whether the next leg favors the bulls or extends the correction phase.
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