Ethereum is trading 1.58% lower at $2,168 after the Fed’s hawkish tone at yesterday’s meeting led to a broad decline in risk assets. $ETH is currently testing the uptrend line on the two-hour chart that has been in place since late February, with the RSI approaching oversold territory at 34.67. The ETF’s $55.51 million outflow on March 18 added institutional weight to an already technically weak session.
Daily chart: Supertrend holds at $1,977
$ETH Daily price movement (Source: TradingView)
Looking at the daily chart, $ETH It is still above the supertrend of $1,977.75, which turned bullish in early March and has not been tested since. The price is currently between the 20-day EMA of $2,117.82 and the 50-day EMA of $2,215.41. Yesterday’s candlestick ended below 50 days for the first time since the recovery began, which is a meaningful change.
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The price remains well above the 100-day EMA of $2,500.73 and the 200-day EMA of $2,821.07. The question at hand is whether the 20-day EMA at $2,117.82 holds as a rebound level or whether the price continues towards the $1,977 supertrend.
Main level:
- Super Trend Support: $1,977.75
- 20-day EMA support: $2,117.82
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2,215.41
- 100-day EMA resistance: $2,500.73
2-hour chart: uptrend line under pressure
$ETH 2-hour price movement (Source: TradingView)
The two-hour chart shows that the uptrend line from the February lows around $1,800 has passed through the $2,140 to $2,160 area, which is exactly where the price is being tested. SAR has moved above the resistance level at $2,233.69 after turning bearish yesterday. The RSI at 34.67 is below the signal line at 42.12 and close to the 30 level, where pullbacks have historically occurred in this time frame.
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Since late February, all previous tests of this trend line have resulted in a pullback. A break below this at the 2-hour close would change the structure and open the door to $2,080 and the daily 20-day EMA of $2,117.
Main 2 hour levels:
- Uptrend line: ~$2,140 to $2,160
- SAR resistance: $2,233.69
- Support below trend line: $2,080 to $2,100
- Daily 20-day EMA: $2,117.82
ETF outflows, record inflows for 6 consecutive days
The US Ethereum Spot ETF recorded net outflows of $55.51 million on March 18th, ending a six-day streak of positive flows that had accumulated $138.25 million on March 17th alone. Fidelity’s FETH led the exit with $37.11 million, followed by Grayscale’s ETHE with $6.89 million, Bitwise’s ETHW with $4.7 million, and VanEck’s ETHV with $4.8 million. Cumulative net inflows remained at $11.91 billion, and total net assets amounted to $13.34 billion, representing 4.88% of the total. $ETHmarket capitalization.
One bad day won’t erase a six-day streak, but timing is important. The outflows occurred on the same day the Fed signaled it would cut rates less than the market expected, and the scale of Fidelity’s exit in particular suggests institutional holders are expecting a more dovish outcome.
Derivative: Longs Got Hard Hit
$ETH Derivatives analysis (Source: Coinglass)
Open interest decreased by 9.60% to $29.35 billion and volume increased by 65.12% to $76.44 billion, a combination that supports forced position closing rather than orderly selling. Longs absorbed $144.02 million in 24-hour settlements, while shorts totaled $29.42 million. The $144 million long liquidation is one of the largest single-day long flashes. $ETH was seen in March and reflects how crowded the long side was after six weeks of recovery.
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Options volume increased by 54.52% to $1.25 billion, and option OI increased by 3.12% to $8.78 billion, both indicating increased demand for hedging as the correction deepens. Binance’s long/short ratio is 1.70 and top traders’ positions are 1.12, indicating that institutional investors’ positioning has moved closer to neutral after the liquidation event.
Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?
- Bullish case: $ETH Holding the uptrend line between $2,140 and $2,160 at the 2-hour close, the RSI rebounds from near oversold levels and the price retakes the SAR at $2,233. A rally above the 50-day EMA at $2,215.41 would reset the bullish structure with the next target at $2,376 and recent highs.
- Bearish Case: The trend line breaks at the 2-hour close and the price falls towards the 20-day EMA at $2,117.82 and $2,080. Failure to hold these levels would create a daily supertrend at $1,977.75, a loss of which would completely negate the March recovery.
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