Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000 as spot ETF inflows and options market positioning exert opposing mechanical forces on price movement.
Current prices sit just outside the roughly $90,000 to $94,000 range, and this range continues despite intermittent spikes and declines in spot demand through US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Breaking through $94,000 and reaching highs of $97,800 in intraday pricing is encouraging for those who think Bitcoin is done with its four-year cycle. But the question now is whether this is the beginning of a new bull market or the beginning of a disguised short-term macro factor.
ETF inflows surge as Bitcoin tests new highs
According to Farside Investors, net inflows across the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $840.6 million on January 14, following $753.8 million in the previous session.
This brings the cumulative flow since January 8 to approximately $1.06 billion, despite the material spill two days before the period.
At a typical spot level, this equates to around 11,000 BTC in net generation over 5 sessions, a scale of demand that would typically put upward pressure on prices in less constrained situations.
The structure of the options market has so far absorbed much of that impulse.
CryptoGamma data shows the total dealer positioning in the net long gamma configuration, with an estimated net gamma of approximately +386,000 in spots around $96,800.
In such regimes, dealer hedging activity tends to suppress realized volatility by mechanically selling on the upside and buying on the downside, reinforcing range-bound action around the high-traffic strike zone.
CryptoGamma’s model suggests an upside of $96,000 and a downside near reference levels around $94,000.
This indicates that the lower inflection area around $91,500 could fall below the current range.
Volatility indicators support the overall picture of compression.
Seven-day realized volatility has hovered around 32% annually, roughly in line with at-the-money implied volatility of about 33%.
On a daily basis, that typically means a price move of about 1.7%, or about $1,600 at current prices, consistent with recent tapes.
Even if spot flows periodically spike, the closeness of realized and implied values reflects stability in market prices rather than acceleration.
Why Bitcoin remains in a range despite strong ETF inflows
The interplay of these forces helps explain why Bitcoin price movement appears subdued despite heavy ETF inflows.
While ETF creation introduces real spot demand, long gamma positioning acts as a counterweight, absorbing flows unless they arrive with sufficient persistence or match changes in option exposure as contracts roll or expire.
As a result, the market may appear calm due to construction rather than lack of interest.
The flow data highlights that ETF bidding is not uniform.
After net outflows of $398.8 million on January 8 and $250 million on January 9, inflows resumed unevenly, reaching $116.7 million on January 12, before accelerating into the middle of the week.
This pattern indicates burst-driven demand rather than continuous waves of allocation, increasing the likelihood that prices will remain suppressed while dealer gamma remains positive.
Macro timing adds another layer to your short-term setup
According to the Fed’s calendar, the Fed’s January policy meeting will conclude on January 28th.
Markets are focusing on the path of interest rates in 2026 as major banks’ forecasts diverge and monetary policy signals become more of a focus.
Separately, the New York Fed outlined plans to carry out more than $55 billion in liquidity operations from mid-January to mid-February.
These factors are important because long-term gamma regimes tend to suppress volatility until interrupted by either sustained directional flows or external risk repricing.
A sequence of spot acceptances and large ETF inflows above the upper end of the current range could weaken the stabilizing effect of dealer hedging.
Conversely, a series of ETF outflows or macro-driven risk-off movements could coincide with gamma decay and expose a low level where hedge flows go in the opposite direction.
The balance remains the same for now.
Bitcoin price action reflects a market with strong structural forces at play, with ETF demand testing the upper end of a range where options positions continue to strengthen.
The next decisive move may depend on which changes first: flow persistence or positioning dynamics.
Will this breakout create sustained pressure to break out of options pressure, or will it fail to validate the move and risk a return to the test liquidation level near $91,000?
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
