The traders seemed to know something the general public didn’t, and they bet accordingly.
Lawmakers, economists and market observers are once again accusing President Donald Trump of insider trading after a series of strangely timed trades in prediction markets and oil futures occurred just before he made remarks about the Iran war.
On Polymarket, a website where users can bet real money on the outcome of world events, eight newly created accounts bet $70,000 on whether a ceasefire will be declared in Iran by the end of March.
If that outcome comes true, that bet could pay out $820,000.
All eight accounts were created around March 21, the same time President Trump posted on social media suggesting the United States was considering “reducing our significant military efforts,” marking a significant shift in his position on the conflict.
Following this activity, Polimarket’s own probability of a ceasefire by March 31 jumped from 6% on March 21st to 24% by Monday. Currently it is 11%. More than $21 million has now been bet on the outcome.
oil market undulation minutes before President Trump announcement
Concerns were further heightened after unusual movements were noticed in global oil markets minutes before President Trump announced a moratorium on airstrikes.
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On Monday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had had “a very good and productive dialogue toward a complete and complete resolution of our hostilities” over the past two days.
but Trading activity had already spiked about 15 minutes earlier, with traders placing 734 bets on the WTI crude oil contract, according to market data.
Within a minute, that number jumped to 2,168 deals and about $170 million. In the same two-minute period, Brent crude oil trades jumped from 20 to more than 1,650, with a total contract value of about $150 million.
Rachel Winter, a partner at asset management firm Killick & Company, told BB.CthThe timing was hard to ignore.
“Right before he posted on social media, quite a few people had entered into contracts to benefit from lower oil prices,” she said. “So there’s been some speculation about insider trading. please don’t I don’t know if that’s true, but Hopefully There will be some investigation into that. ”
Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy went further, claiming that someone bought $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures and sold $192 million in oil futures about five minutes before Trump’s post.
he publicly asked: “Who Was It?” Mr. Murphy, along with Texas Representative Greg Casar, last week introduced the Bet Off Act, which would make it illegal to bet on wars or government decisions if the bettor already knows the outcome.
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As polymarket odds soar, Sen. Chris Murphy accuses President Trump of insider trading.
Source: @ChrisMurphyCT of X
The White House rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing.
public relations person Said: “The White House does not tolerate government officials using insider information to illegally profit, and any suggestion that government officials engage in such activity without evidence is unsubstantiated.”
Polymarket pull nuclear gambling contract
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has been in the spotlight. Cryptopolitan reports that the platform has quietly removed a contract that allowed users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would go off this year.
The page is simply Read: “Event has been archived.” Before it was withdrawn, the market had already generated more than $650,000 in trading volume.
The platform also removed an X post that put the probability of a nuclear explosion in 2026 at 22%.
The deletion came after the disturbing events of February 28, when the US began airstrikes on Tehran and other Iranian cities, but hours before the airstrikes began, six anonymous accounts on Polymarket had already placed “yes” bets on whether the US would attack Iran.
