Cryptocurrency-driven perpetual futures are rapidly emerging as the next frontier in global price discovery, reshaping the way stocks and major indexes are traded as traditional exchanges face an urgent crossroads of adapt or die.
Increasing influence of perpetual futures on global markets
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex and chief information officer of Maelstrom, announced on November 27 that traditional exchanges are facing an “adapt or die” inflection point as perpetual futures reshape the pricing of stocks, indices, and ultimately interest rates in global markets. He claimed that crypto-native structures are outpacing traditional derivatives faster than regulators expected.
“Why is the volume of derivatives trading around the world, and for all financial assets, shifting from dated futures and options contracts to perpetual PERPs?” he wrote. Hayes used that question to frame the structural tension between traditional clearinghouses and margin systems designed for high leverage, 24/7 participation.
The Bitmex co-founder pointed out that perpetual equities will accelerate dramatically in 2026 as non-stop access and concentrated liquidity attract both speculative and hedging flows. He said this change reflects growing demand across centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) cryptocurrency exchanges, and they stand to expand their offerings as interest in PERP grows. He opined:
Stock PERPs will be the most popular product in 2026, and all DEXs and CEXs will offer them by the end of next year, just like my beloved Bitmex.
His analysis explained how these contracts can be a preferred mechanism for managing overnight and weekend index risk, especially when geopolitical or macro announcements occur outside of traditional exchanges’ limited business hours.
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Hayes predicted that unless traditional exchanges overhaul their collateral and clearing models, benchmark price discovery will quickly migrate to crypto platforms. “By the end of 2026, I predict that price discovery for the largest U.S. tech stocks and major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, etc.) will take place in the PERP market serving retail businesses,” Hayes explained. He suggested that U.S. political momentum could support the expansion of the crypto market by 2029, giving foreign regulators more room to align with the U.S. position.
“If for some reason the United States is hosting criminals, we are giving regulators permission to let them in as well,” he said. Hayes describes the results for traditional venues in stark terms:
Therefore, in 2025, TradFi will either adapt to criminals and other crypto innovations or disappear.
His outlook argues that exchanges unwilling to continue moving to cryptocurrency-style derivatives could lose relevance as liquidity moves to platforms that offer deeper leverage, tighter funding markets, and uninterrupted access.
FAQ ⏰
- What market changes does Arthur Hayes predict in 2026?
He expects perpetual stocks to surge as the most popular trading product and gain dominance across exchanges. - Why does Hayes expect price discovery to migrate to crypto platforms?
He claims that PERP’s non-stop access and liquidity will outperform traditional exchanges’ slow collateral and clearing systems. - How might U.S. political momentum impact global PERP adoption?
Hayes said that if the U.S. accepts it until 2029, there could be support from international regulators to support the growth of similar crypto markets. - What risks do traditional exchanges face if they resist structural change?
Hayes warns that they may lose relevance as traders move into the persistently high-leverage PERP market.
