In recent weeks, the U.S. Treasury market has experienced capital movements not seen in more than a decade. Foreign central banks have reduced the New York Federal Reserve’s government bond holdings to the lowest level since 2012 as the Iran conflict continues to strain energy supplies.
Official FED data (WSEINTL1 series) confirms $82 billion in net outflows since the end of February. The total balance remains at 2.7 billion. While these numbers are definitive, analysts are debating whether we are facing a short-term tactical response or the beginning of a structural shift in the global financial structure.
The most direct explanation is in energy bills. If oil prices rise, net importing countries such as India and Turkiye will face dual pressures. This is because they need liquid dollars to pay for oil, and at the same time they must intervene in the market to prevent their currency from depreciating.
In this scenario, government bonds serve as an immediate liquidity reserve. Selling them is the quickest way to get the money you need This is to stabilize the domestic economy.
However, this liquidation will take place under geopolitically sensitive circumstances. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned that long-term bond yields could rise by more than 100 basis points if this weak external demand continues.
This has reignited the debate on reserve diversification; Although some observers see increased interest in alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin (BTC), total holdings data (public and private) suggest the dollar remains the linchpin of the system.
Another Deutsche Bank report, also cited by CriptoNoticias in October 2025, suggests that Bitcoin could become part of central bank balance sheets by 2030. Analysts at the bank note that Bitcoin is behaving increasingly like gold, with low volatility and little correlation to other assets, making it a potential complementary reserve option, but for now gold will maintain leadership.
From a regional perspective, Latin America maintains a secondary role in this adjustment. Brazil’s assets have been on a gradual decline, hitting $168 billion in January. Current selling pressure is coming primarily from economies outside the hemisphere.
Historically, the region has accounted for less than 10% of global assets, and its central banks typically prioritize exchange rate stability through reserve diversification.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the downward trend continues. The evolution of these portfolios depends on key factors such as the duration of hostilities in the Middle East. and the ability of U.S. bonds to continue to provide safety in a world where energy liquidity is a top priority for many central banks.
(Tag Translate) Banking and Insurance
