Crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe stoked the pot today on X (formerly Twitter). He thought Bitcoin’s volatility was “a significant reduction in this cycle” and “over a long period of time.” His punchline? Do not use a pencil to peak this Q4. Instead, plan for the fourth quarter of 2026 or even 2027 for the top of the next major market.
Volatility has dropped significantly with #BitCoin during this cycle. This is because it has stagnated over a long period of time.
I don’t think we’ll see a clear case of a market peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Nothing compares to the previous cycle…
-Michaël Vande Poppe (@cryptomichnl) August 4, 2025
Currently, the price of BTC is about $114,223, barely bulging, and today it’s only 0.26% increase, with a high of $114,880 and a low of $113,675. The lack of drama on the price chart really shows his point. The normal wild shaking has now become quiet.
In fact, implicit volatility has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023. Recent data shows that the last time Bitcoin IV touched on these depths, it immediately increased by about 50% the following week. On the realisation side, TradingView data confirms that 30-day volatility has fallen from a peak of nearly 85% in early 2024 to about 28% of past quarters.
Are we in a new stage?
What does this all mean? Van de Poppe claims we are running for the long term without the trademark frenzy of past cycles. Instead of a rigorous cadence of four years, this cycle can stretch for an extra year or more.
Hey @scottmelker
If Bitcoin can regain the slope of the broken parabolic, then $BTC will achieve its target to reach the top of the Bull Market Cycle at the level of $125,000 to $150,000 by August/September 2025, with over 50% pic.twitter.com/wuzxl0ckn-Peter Brandt (@peterlbrandt) May 1, 2025
However, not everyone is on the same page. Veteran trader Peter Brandt is watching the second half of 2025 peak in the neighborhood between $125,000 and $150,000, assuming Bitcoin prices will regain the long-term parabolic trendline. Also, some Bitcoin price forecasts warn that if the roughly $110,000 support collapses, they could easily go back and reconsider $100,000.
Y? The US tariff bill is scheduled for the 3Q… at least MRKT believes it after NFP printing. There are no major ECONs that create enough credits quickly enough to increase nominal GDP. So $BTC tests $10,000, $ETH test $3K. For more information, please see @webx_asia Tokyo’s keynote speech on August 25th. Return to the beach. https://t.co/zuhlwgqkc7
– Arthur Hayes (@cryptohayes) August 2, 2025
In the institutional aspect, liquidity is more deep than ever. A June report from Bybit, produced at Block Scholes, points out that the influx of Heftty ETFs helped push implicit volatility down to about 28%.
So, what should crypto investors do? If Van de Poppe is right, patience can reward you brilliantly and are ready to lock your profits a year or two behind normal. As he said, “Longer Cycles, Higher Rewards” could be the new Bitcoin Bulls mantra heading for the second half of 2026 and beyond.
