MIAMI BEACH — When Shayne Coplan started Polymarket, he didn’t have a team or big money. All he had was blockchain, a strong faith, and a laptop.
“I’m a solo founder. I literally started with almost zero money,” Koplan said Wednesday in a conversation at the Cantor Fitzgerald Cryptocurrency, AI, and Blockchain Conference in Miami Beach. “The great thing about blockchain is that kids can innovate and experiment with financial applications from the comfort of their bedrooms, bathrooms, offices, etc.”
He credited the open nature of blockchain for creating a functioning global market without traditional institutional support. “The barriers to entry for trying to build something innovative in traditional fintech are prohibitive for someone who is young and doesn’t have a lot of money or time and is trying to build something new,” he said.
Launched in 2020, Polymarket allows users to trade the likelihood of real-world outcomes, from elections to Fed decisions to celebrity gossip. This platform does not function based on polling data or expert predictions. Instead, let the market determine the odds.
“When people are tracking elections, or elections that affect their lives, they want to know who’s going to win,” Coplan says. “Polls are fine. There’s a bunch of random people here…but they’re always leaning one way or the other. It’s just noise.”
He believes the market offers something more honest: prices backed by conviction and risk.
“We have a cycle where every time there’s a big election, everyone flocks to the polymarket and everyone checks it out. Then everyone shows up and makes up conspiracy theories about why it’s not accurate,” he said. “If Mr. Cuomo is trading for 5 cents to get a dollar…if it’s actually worth 40 or 50 cents and it’s trading for 5 cents, you should buy it. You should put your money up.”
Each trade on Polymarket is peer-to-peer, and prices reflect collective beliefs. “It’s not determined by how much money goes into each candidate,” Coplan explained. “At any given time, there will be Yes stock…and if you look at the order book, there will be buys and sells.
Whatever the middle ground is, it’s possible. The present value is that if you get it right, you earn $1. ”
Beyond politics, Koplan believes prediction markets have broader potential as a decision-making tool in public policy.
“You can say, what are the chances that Mr. Cuomo will win if Mr. Sliwa doesn’t drop out, and what are the chances that Mr. Cuomo will win if he drops out,” he said. “If we build markets correctly, they can support societal decision-making on an unprecedented scale.”
Koplan also believes Polymarket can compete with traditional betting platforms by offering something traditional sportsbooks cannot: fairness.
“When you bet or trade on the outcome of a match… there’s a monopoly on pricing. You’re trading against the house every time,” he says. “They can set whatever price they want. If you make any money, they can ban you. They can create a profile for you and set a worse price or give you restrictions.”
“This is America. We see something that is inefficient and cheats on consumers. You can’t go and complain when an alternative to the financial market comes along when it’s a financial market and it’s positioned as an entertainment product designed to lose money.”
Coplan envisions polymarkets eventually playing a role in areas such as insurance, where consumers often face bundled services and high premiums.
“A lot of times, when you’re downsizing or trying to avoid some kind of special risk, you’re dealing with companies that have sales teams and risk departments…usually at a very bad price,” he said. “The great thing about Polymarket is that there are people who are creating Polymarket for the same kinds of risks. People who are in the price risk business can provide liquidity. People who are good at sales can go and help hedge those risks.”
He also touched on the role that AI agents could soon play in trading markets. “We see a lot of people experimenting with AI agents that can gauge sentiment, monitor news, and basically form their own opinions… If they spot mispricing, they can try to correct the market,” he said. “Even if liquidity is very low or liquidity subsidies are low, you can force these agents to quit, and people will compete to build the most accurate agents.”
Koplan said much of the polymarket’s potential lies in the long tail of niche markets, anything related to uncertainty. “Will it generate large amounts of information? No. But will it unlock new forms of information? Yes,” he said. “Polymarket odds (proportions of chance of something) can be extended to a wider range of opportunities.”
As Polymarket prepares to expand its presence in the U.S. and acquire new users through a beta exchange, Coplan remains focused on building a platform that stays ahead of traditional institutions and delivers on the inherent promise of blockchain.
“We’re just trying to make the best product,” he said. “It’s what people like and your opinion actually matters.”
