Bitcoin prices won a new record just above the $124,000 mark a few days ago. I then printed two consecutive bearish daily candles back to the key area. Investors are currently monitoring the market carefully to find early signs of a reversal.
Shayan Market
Daily Charts
On the daily charts, Bitcoin again tests the lower limit of long-term upward channels, increasing the likelihood of a downside breakout after holding months within the structure. If the breakdown occurs, the $110,000 region backed by a nearby 100-day moving average could serve as a strong support area.
Conversely, if the channel can contain prices, bullish momentum could continue, paving the way for a new high to $130,000.
4-hour chart
With a four-hour time frame, BTC recently attempted a breakout that exceeded $123,000 resistance, but was unable to maintain it anytime soon, resulting in a sharp decline that broke the short-term trendlines built over the past few weeks. This rejection showed weakness at high prices and changed the market’s short-term structure.
At this point, the $116K area stands out as the main support that could cause another bounce. However, if this level gives way, it is more and more likely that a deeper drop into the area of $111,000 is more likely. As the RSI recovered after soaking below 50, the price action suggests a possible retest of $116,000 before confirming the next move. Whether this support is retained or rested sets the tone of Bitcoin’s short-term trends.
On-Chain Analysis
Bitcoin Open Interest
This chart shows Bitcoin’s short-term holder SOPR with 30-day EMA compared to price. A SOPR above 1 means that a short-term holder is selling on profits, but below the one signal sold on losses.
During a rally like early 2023, the SOPR was above 1, confirming it was profitable. In contrast, we mark one short-term yield during correction. Currently, short-term holders are profiting as Bitcoin is around $118,000 and SOPR is above 1.
However, the magnitude of profit has been declining at recent price hikes since the beginning of 2024. This observation is clear because there is a clear difference between the high price and high STH-SOPR. If short-term holders’ profit margins shrink, the market can quickly become a problem, as this could be one of the early signs of a reversal.
