BTC remains range-bound as open interest cools and sailors spark speculation

Bitcoin ended December with severe consolidation and heightened uncertainty, trading around $89,400. After a volatile month, price trends have slowed to a narrow range. As a result, traders were focused on whether buyers would be able to regain control or whether sellers would extend the correction.

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin moving sideways with a mild bearish trend. Price remained below the 200-period EMA on a downtrend, continuing to limit any upside attempts. However, stable demand near lower levels prevented a sharp collapse.

Technical structure Signal compression

On the 4-hour time frame, Bitcoin continued to move in a corrective rather than an impulsive manner. Sellers repeatedly defended the $91,500-$92,000 zone, increasing supply pressure. However, buyers continued to defend the lows in the $85,800 to $86,000 range. Therefore, this structure reflects balance rather than trend resolution.

The short-term EMA was significantly compressed, suggesting a decline in momentum. Such compression is often preceded by volatility expansion. Additionally, the supertrend indicator remained bearish, limiting upside follow-through during the rebound.

The main resistance level centered around $90,800, followed by a heavier supply band between $91,600 and $92,000. A decisive pullout above this area could drive momentum toward $94,600. Conversely, a loss of $87,000 could expose the $85,000 to $84,000 area.

Be careful with derivatives and spot flows

Bitcoin futures data has revealed a continuous increase in open interest in recent weeks. Open interest rose as prices rose, reflecting new leveraged participation. Importantly, the decline in open interest remained shallow even during consolidation.

Related: Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Attempts Base as Buyers Protect Low of Range

As a result, traders largely maintained their exposure through the correction. However, the recent leveling off at around $57 billion suggests a growing sense of caution. Such pauses often appear before volatility spikes, especially when positioning is crowded.

Spot flow data strengthened the market’s defensive stance. Outflows have consistently exceeded inflows, indicating prudent capital behavior. Additionally, the surge in large outflows coincided with a decline in local prices. This pattern highlighted the liquidity flowing out of the exchange during downside price movements.

Although there was a short-term burst of inflows, it suggested tactical buy-in rather than sustained accumulation. In late December, net inflows remained negative, including notable outflows near $89,700.

Saylor Signal adds strategic context

Michael Saylor’s recent “back to orange” message added another layer to market sentiment. Observers associated the signals with past strategic accumulation phases. However, the purchase was never confirmed after this post.

The strategy recently paused buying following previous accumulation signals, suggesting a disciplined pacing. Still, investors often view Strategic’s actions as faith-based rather than speculative. As a result, while short-term signals prompted caution, expectations for future buying supported long-term confidence.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin price

Bitcoin trades within a 4-hour range, so the key levels remain well-defined.

Upside levels include $90,500 and $91,600, where previous rejections remain concentrated as immediate hurdles. A decisive break above $92,000 would strengthen the bullish momentum and could start a move towards $94,600 and then towards the extended level of $103,300.

Related: Zcash Price Prediction: Zcash Consolidates After Rejection As Traders Be Alert…

On the downside, $88,800 serves as the first line of intraday support. Below that, the $87,600 to $87,000 zone remains an important structural and Fibonacci support area.

Failure to maintain this range will expose the $86,000 demand zone that has kept prices low throughout December. A loss of $86,000 would weaken the broader structure and shift focus to $83,900.

The top of resistance lies near the falling 200 EMA at $91,600. This level remains an important barrier to reversing improving medium-term trends. Technically, Bitcoin continues to compress below this moving average, reflecting a decline in directional confidence.

The bigger picture suggests price compression within a correction range rather than an impulsive trend. This structure often occurs before volatility expands when price breaks out of a range. Therefore, checking direction remains important.

Will Bitcoin rise further or roll over?

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook depends on whether buyers can hold onto the $87,000 support zone long enough to challenge the $91,600-$92,000 resistance cluster. If the strength above the resistance persists, it will push towards $94,600. However, if the price cannot sustain above $87,000, there is a risk that downward pressure on the price below $85,000 will accelerate.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a crucial technical zone. Compression, rising derivatives positioning, and cautious spot flows suggest a decisive move is on the horizon. The next leg will depend on confirmation from price structure, volume, and follow-through above key resistance.

Related: Shiba Inu price prediction: SHIB stabilizes near-term lows as supply signals improve