São Paulo-based crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin (MB), one of the largest trading platforms in Latin America, has released a report outlining six key trends expected to define the crypto market in 2026.
The report points to the significant expansion of stablecoins, tokenization, altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and AI-driven trading as key factors shaping the next phase of the industry.
Changes in the ratio of Bitcoin and gold
MB estimates Bitcoin as BTC$90,566.73 It could reach 14% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2026. That ratio is currently 5.65%, which means, all else being equal, the price of Bitcoin will more than double.
The report notes Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value, especially compared to gold, which faces logistical challenges regarding transportation and storage. The company said the cryptocurrency’s adoption by institutional investors, who have accumulated more than 1.09 million Bitcoins to date, shows that Bitcoin is no longer a niche asset.
Bitcoin’s digital, borderless, and self-custodial nature has helped it attract interest from investors looking for an alternative to traditional safe assets, the report added.
MB added that the 14% figure is not a guess, but the result of an evaluation methodology developed in collaboration with researchers at the University of California (UCLA).
“The Bitcoin Valuation Framework uses, among other techniques, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach to estimate the theoretical value of Bitcoin,” the report said. “Instead of imposing traditional cash flow models on financial assets, we start with the global store of value market, use gold as the primary benchmark, and predict what portion of this market Bitcoin will capture under different adoption scenarios.”
The firm’s analysts wrote that the framework leads to a base case in which Bitcoin reaches 14% of gold’s market capitalization this year.
Stablecoins increase to 5 trillion
MB predicts that the stablecoin sector, which already forms the core of crypto infrastructure, will grow to reach a market capitalization of $500 billion by 2026. This will partially outpace the growth of stablecoins that are not dependent on the US dollar.
According to MB, stablecoins have evolved from transaction tools to payment methods across countries and sectors. “[Stablecoins]play an important role as a source of liquidity for the sector, facilitating the quick and secure movement of resources without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets,” the report adds.
The company notes that in 2025, stablecoin market capitalization increased by nearly 50% year-over-year, a trend the company attributes to growing adoption and regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States.
According to data from DeFiLlama, the stablecoin sector is currently worth $307 billion, with Tether’s USDT accounting for 60.5% of that. It started at about $205 billion in 2025.
Altcoin ETFs stand out
Funds tied to altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Chainlink began attracting capital after U.S. regulators began approving ETFs for crypto assets other than Bitcoin and Ether in late 2025.
The XRP ETF alone currently manages about $1.47 billion in assets, with the Solana ETF adding another $1.09 billion, according to SoSoValue data. MB expects this market segment to grow to at least $10 billion by the end of 2026, with XRP and SOL accounting for approximately 80% of new inflows.
This analysis considers altcoin ETFs that do not include Bitcoin or Ether and are listed on regulated markets.
Tokenized asset market triples
The global volume of tokenized real-world assets is expected to increase by 200% to over $54 billion.
In 2025, MB argued that this growth was made possible by regulatory advances across key markets. The European Union has allowed a large amount of tokenized transactions on permissioned blockchains, while the United States has recognized blockchain-based records of asset transfers.
Major institutional investors such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree are launching their own tokenized funds, while others are also starting to consider the possibility of launching one.
MB points to these developments as evidence that tokenization is becoming a viable path to bringing traditional assets into blockchain-based systems, increasing efficiency and accessibility for both issuers and investors.
Prediction market expands 25 times
The report highlights prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi as the fastest growing segment in the crypto space. These platforms allow users to trade the odds of future events, such as election or sports results.
MB predicts that the capital locked up in these markets could reach $20 billion by the end of 2026, from a current estimate of less than $1 billion.
The report attributes this expansion to global events such as the 2026 World Cup and presidential elections in major countries, as well as the rise of prediction markets related to entertainment and climate-related scenarios.
For MB analysts, the peer-to-peer model of these markets and aligned incentives between users and platforms will also contribute to growth.
AI-powered agents drive on-chain activity
MB also expects AI agents integrated into blockchain to play a larger role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
These agents are designed to make autonomous decisions and execute transactions, and are beginning to leverage new technology standards such as x402 and ERC-8004 to meet demands for transparency, traceability, and micropayments.
The report estimates that the transaction value of these AI agents will exceed $1 million per day by 2026, a fourfold increase from current levels.
