Tom Lee explained his case in an interview on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Friday, saying U.S. stocks can finish 2025 higher and cryptocurrencies should rise towards the end of the year after rapid deleveraging.
Mr. Lee, Chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), Head of Research at FundStrat Global Advisors, and Chief Investment Officer at FundStrat Capital, will be the co-host. Asked by John Fort whether risk-on trading is returning, he said he remained bullish during the spring recession and reminded viewers that Fundstrat’s year-end S&P 500 index target was 6,600 at the April low.
He said that with the index at about 6,800 with about 10 weeks left, it would be up about 4% in a “normal year” and that it would be “more than 7,000 by the end of the year”, arguing that the rise could be as much as 10%. He linked the upside to the Fed’s interest rate cuts, which began in September after a long hiatus (something he said has only happened in 1998 and 2024 in the past 50 years), as well as persistent investor skepticism that could fuel a rally later this year.
Asked by Fort how cryptocurrencies fit in with tariff and trade concerns, Lee pointed to October 10th as “the biggest liquidation event in the last five years” and said the flash was partly triggered by escalating tariff tensions between the US and China. Despite this, Bitcoin’s decline was only 3% to 4%, which he claimed was a sign of resilience. “If this were to happen with gold and gold was only down a few percentage points, we would consider that a real validation,” he said, calling Bitcoin “a pretty good store of value” in that context.
He expects the situation to improve towards the end of the year, noting that while Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest (a measure of open futures and options positions) is at record lows, the technicals are “reversing.” He said a clearer background for derivatives often precedes upside. Lee also highlighted supportive headlines from traditional financial institutions, saying it shows JPMorgan is “open to the idea of using cryptocurrencies as collateral.”
Co-host Morgan Brennan then asked if crypto trends are still leading the stock market and how Bitcoin and Ether map to US indexes. Lee responded that the signals look “pretty bullish,” arguing that cryptocurrencies often indicate the direction of stocks and broader liquidity. He related Bitcoin’s movements to the S&P 500 and said that Ether affects small-cap stocks through the Russell 2000.
Regarding fundamentals, Lee said that while Ethereum activity is rising in both L1 and L2, driven by stablecoins, it will take some time for that usage to be reflected in the price, confirming his view that ETH and BTC will make a “pretty big move” towards the end of the year.
US stocks ended Friday with the S&P 500 at 6,791.69 (+0.79% for the day, +15.73% YTD), the Nasdaq Composite at 23,204.87 (+1.15%, +20.35% YTD), and the Dow at 47,207.12 (+1.01%, +11.36%). since the beginning of the year). As of 12:50 PM UTC Saturday, Bitcoin was trading at $111,776 (+0.3% in 24 hours, +19.60% YTD) and Ether was trading at $3,952 (-0.4% in 24 hours, +18.15% YTD).
