By the time most people finish their first cup of coffee, the market has already set the direction for the day, and Bitcoin will react, overreact, and possibly reverse.
Friday, January 9th has a familiar feeling that traders dread and secretly crave. It’s a calendar where the headings are close together and one article flows into the next. If you hold Bitcoin today, you are essentially watching a live experiment in how quickly the market can reprice fear, hope, and interest rates.
Here’s what’s in the deck and why it’s important.
8:30 a.m. ET, jobs report causes first shockwaves
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the U.S. government released its employment situation report, which includes non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to do so this morning.
This is a release that tends to impact Bitcoin through one major channel: interest rates.
When the jobs report is higher than expected, traders typically believe the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates steady for a long time, which tends to push up bond yields, strengthen the dollar, and put pressure on assets that rely on cheap money. Bitcoin often behaves like that kind of asset in the short term, it trades like liquidity, and liquidity has a price.
When employment data softens, yields often fall, the dollar can weaken, and suddenly the market starts fantasizing about interest rate cuts coming soon, and Bitcoin usually likes that dream.
The important thing here is what the market is already leaning towards. According to Reuters, the market is pricing in only about a 10% chance of a rate cut at January’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the probability rising to about 55% by April, depending on developments in the labor market.
In other words, the printed jobs report is not just an economic scorecard, but a handle on interest rate expectations, and interest rate expectations are one of the cleanest levers of Bitcoin’s daily movement.
Supreme Court opens at 10 a.m. ET, tariff bombs could be dropped
The U.S. Supreme Court convenes at 10 a.m. ET. Its website states that the session will begin at 10 a.m. and can begin with presentations.
This is important today as financial markets brace for decisions related to President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, which could have a material impact on inflation expectations, Treasury issuance, and overall risk sentiment.
Reuters said there was market anxiety over the possibility of tariffs being invalidated and the size of refunds of approximately $150 billion to $200 billion of paid duties being discussed.
There’s an important reality check here. The court does not announce in advance exactly which cases will be decided on a particular opinion date. Therefore, a “10 a.m. tariff decision” is a plausible scenario, not a guaranteed one.
Still, traders are bracing as if something big could happen. Political messages can also be conveyed loudly. As the market awaits a ruling that could come as early as today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly defended the tariff approach.
So why does this affect Bitcoin?
That’s because tariffs are one of the issues that can dictate both the inflation story and the growth story at the same time. If tariffs remain in place, the inflation story could feel even more troubling. If tariffs are lowered, markets may interpret this as easing cost pressures, encouraging the idea of lowering rates sooner.
Then there’s also the financial perspective, if refunds do indeed become a multi-year process, that means potentially meaningful money moving through the system, which the market translates into changes in borrowing needs and yields, which can then loop back into Bitcoin via interest rates again.
Kashkari speaks amidst the noise, also at 10 a.m. ET.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. as the Supreme Court convenes.
This is where days like this become troublesome. Sometimes there’s a move in the jobs report, then the Fed headlines reaffirm or overturn it, and then the court headlines add a second shock on top.
There is no need for a cryptocurrency-specific reason for Bitcoin to fluctuate when the macrotape is fluctuating.
At 3:30 PM ET, positioning data ends the day with a sentiment check.
Then, at 3:30 p.m. ET, the CFTC releases its weekly Trader Commitment Report. This is the standard time that is often the source of talk about “net positions” in metals and other futures markets.
Although this tends to be a secondary factor for Bitcoin, it can still be important as a clue to how crowded “hard asset” trading is across gold and related markets. On a day when people are trying to decide whether Bitcoin trades like technology, like gold, or like a pure risk lever, those positioning trends could influence the story next week.
Bitcoin setup to date is already weak
Bitcoin does not enter from a benign baseline on days like this.
Bitcoin is hovering around $90,508 after rallying towards $95,000 earlier this week, with net outflows from the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF on Wednesday highlighted at $486 million.
This is important because ETF flows have become one of the easiest ways to account for Bitcoin movements when they are amplified. When the flow is strong, you can buy the push faster. If flows turn negative, macro fears could turn into a sharper decline simply because there is less stable demand waiting underneath.
How Bitcoin will hit today, the easiest way to think about it
If there’s one mental model today, it’s that Bitcoin monitors the price of a currency.
The price of money is reflected in bond yields, especially short-term yields and the US dollar. Both the employment report and the Fed’s commentary can change quickly. An unexpected Supreme Court headline can instantly change inflation and growth expectations, both of which are reflected in yields.
Therefore, the day splits into several major paths.
- Pass 1, “Rate Up” Day.
Bitcoin often struggles in such environments when employment is strong, the Fed’s messaging is hawkish, yields are rising, and the dollar is strong. Here we see a sudden drop that feels disconnected from crypto news. - Pass 2, “Interest Rate Reduction” Day.
Employment disappoints, the market begins to bring forward proposed cuts, yields fall, the dollar depreciates, and Bitcoin often bids up. This situation could still be volatile if traders begin to worry that the weak jobs report signals a larger economic slowdown, but the first reaction often occurs through liquidity. - Pass 3, “Headline Whipping” Day.
This is what people are afraid of today. At 8:30 we get a clear decision, at 10:00 a legal headline changes the inflation story, and a Fed speaker adds another interpretation. Bitcoin can move in both directions quickly, and the rest can be resolved through liquidation.
Markets are already bracing for volatility surrounding the tariff litigation, with uncertainty surrounding potential refund amounts and how policy will change direction even after a ruling.
Big picture, today is about the mood of 2026
Days like this can feel dramatic, and they are, but they also reveal the deeper stories of the year.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a world where macro policy dominates the conversation. The Fed’s debate has not been resolved even within the Fed. Reuters reported that Bankruptcy Governor Stephen Milan said he supported a 150 basis point rate cut this year, a dovish view.
At the same time, official long-term forecasts are fraught with friction. The Congressional Budget Office expects inflation to remain above target for many years, with only modest cuts in 2026, due in part to tariffs and demand trends.
That’s the environment Bitcoin is emerging from, where optimism about easing is real, fears about continued inflation are real, and trade policy uncertainty is a storm cloud in the background.
So today’s schedule will be a live test to see which story wins in the morning and which survives to the end.
If you’re looking at Bitcoin today, keep it simple, focus on yields and the dollar, watch whether the ETF flow headlines reinforce this move or resist it, and be prepared for the market to change its mind within an hour.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
