The cryptocurrency market may be quietly turning a corner, but now is not the time to be blindly optimistic, according to analyst Ran Neuner.
Neuner said he is “cautiously bullish,” meaning the signs look better than before, but the market still has important things to prove.
Why he feels better than before
Neuner pointed to an important move that occurred just around the new year. Bitcoin has broken out of a short-term downtrend and surpassed its 50-day moving average, a level that many traders are watching.
What made this move even more convincing was the follow-through. Bitcoin not only surpassed that level, it fell again, tested, and held. Neuner says it usually indicates strength, not weakness.
What’s even more interesting is that the same thing happened with other major coins. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all also returned above their 50-day averages.
“It shows that this is not just the movement of one coin,” Neuner explained. “The whole market is trying to recover.”
US buyers are back
Another notable signal is the return of Coinbase Premium. This comes at a time when Bitcoin is trading slightly higher on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, indicating strong demand from US investors.
Neuner said this is important because many past rallies started when U.S. buyers retreated first.
Simply put, there are once again more buyers than sellers.
Markets are functioning more healthily
Mr. Neuner also talked about changes in market structure. Prices are now forming higher highs and higher lows, which often marks the beginning of a recovery.
At the same time, altcoins started outperforming Bitcoin, and Bitcoin’s dominance began to decline a bit. This usually means that traders are more confident and more willing to take risks again.
“These are early signs, but they are signs,” Neuner said.
The level that decides everything
Despite all the positives, Neuner says Bitcoin is headed for a win-win moment.
The next big hurdle is the 200-day moving average near $107,000. In a strong bull market, Bitcoin will continue to rise above this level. If the market is weak, the price will rebound towards it, be rejected, and then fall again.
Neuner warned that in past cycles, this very setup has turned into a false recovery that pulls people back in before the market falls.
Warning from weekly chart
Neuner zoomed out further and pointed to the weekly chart where Bitcoin is below its 50-week moving average. Historically, this level has served as strong support for bull markets.
In previous cycles, when Bitcoin loses that level, the price often falls back to that level, unable to regain it, and then drops towards its 200-week moving average, which is currently near $60,000.
That would be the bearish scenario.
So…bull market or false rebound?
Neuner says the market is at a crossroads.
If Bitcoin sustains above a major resistance level, this could be the next leg of the bull market. If that fails, the recent rally could be just a lull before further declines.
“For now, things seem to be improving,” he said. “But your next move will tell you the truth.”
