Strategy CEO Michael Saylor said today, April 4, 2026, that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is no longer the primary framework for understanding asset prices.
In a message posted to
This phrase directly refers to one of the most deeply ingrained ideas in the Bitcoin market. Its price reacts to a cycle of approximately 4 years in relation to the halving period.
As explained in Cryptopedia, the educational section of CriptoNoticias, this event occurs on a schedule within the Bitcoin protocol and reduces the issuance of new Bitcoins received by miners by half.
Historically, this decline in new supply has been followed by bullish cycles, leading many analysts and investors to believe that the halving is the main driver of prices.
The logic behind this approach is relatively simple. When fewer new BTC enter the market and demand remains the same or increases, bullish pressure tends to increase.
Previous halving cycle
This happened after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, prior to the big crash. gathering The most recent halving occurred in 2024 within the current cycle. Therefore, the idea that BTC would continue to behave in the same pattern was valid for a long time.
But Michael Thaler argues that this plan has lost its power in the face of a new dominant factor: capital flows. When he says “prices are now being driven by capital flows” he is implying that BTC It no longer depends primarily on planned supply cuts, but on the amount of money flowing in and out of assets.
In other words, the central factor is no longer the shortage caused by the halving; However, it is the size of institutional capital, corporate capital, and financial capital that determines the position in BTC.
Saylor added that “banks and digital trust will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.” This suggests that asset expansion will increasingly depend on integration into broader financial circuits, where access to credit, liquidity, and financial instruments linked to BTC will become more important than internal issuance mechanisms.
Sailor’s position and strategy
Thaler’s approach is no small feat. Strategy is the public company with the largest amount of Bitcoin in its corporate treasury, with holdings of 762,099 BTC (valued at $51.39 billion).
From that standpoint, his view of the market is closely tied to a vision in which BTC ceases to be an asset driven solely by its internal dynamics and begins to be integrated into the broader financial system.
In the same message, Saylor also warned of what he sees as the biggest risks to Bitcoin. As he writes, “The biggest risk is a bad idea that causes iatrogenic changes to the protocol.”
The term “iatrogenic” originates from the medical field and is used to describe the harm caused by an intervention that was theoretically intended to improve the situation. This idea is clear when applied to BTC. The biggest danger is not a market crash or external factors. Rather, they are changes to the protocol that end up weakening its essential properties, with the promise of improving the protocol.
This includes changes that may affect issuance restrictions, network security, decentralization, and system stability. Saylor’s warning refers to Bitcoin It maintains its strength precisely because its basic rules are predictable, rigid, and difficult to change.
From that perspective, introducing changes “for the sake of optimizing” can undermine the trust that sustains the value proposition of digital capital.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
