Investment firm Bernstein points out in its latest report that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a long-term bull market phase.
“Given the recent market correction, we believe the BTC cycle has broken its four-year pattern (peaking every four years),” the firm’s analysts said.
That pattern they refer to is related to halvings, events that cut mining rewards in half, and have historically ordered Bitcoin cycles into bull and bear periods every four years.
Under that logic, After three years of growth, the fourth year, 2026, should be a bearish period, but Bernstein is now doubting that.
What Bernstein’s experts said is echoed in one of the latest analyzes by Nicoya Research founder Jason Hamlin.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, Hamlin cautioned that halving will no longer be a decisive factor in predicting BTC highs as its impact will decrease with each cycle. In 2024, the reward decreased to 3,125 BTC, and the inflation rate decreased to 0.83%, which was a significant decrease compared to 8.8% to 4.4% in 2016.
The low relevance of this cycle suggests that other factors, such as macroeconomic factors, are more determining the prices of the most valuable assets in the market.
Institutional investors changed the game for Bitcoin
In this scenario, Bernstein argues that the real driver of the market is institutional investment. According to the company’s analysts, This will move us into a new phase of lower volatility and slower price growth.but more persistent over time.
In this regard, the company emphasizes that BTC is in a “longer bullish cycle, with robust buying by institutional investors offsetting panic selling by individual consumers.”
Examples abound. Strategy, founded by Michael Saylor, acquired 10,624 BTC in early December, raising its reserves to 660,624 BTC. This means that the company took advantage of falling prices to continue accumulating. The type of demand that is reshaping market cycles.
This also includes the operation of Bitcoin ETFs. “Despite a 30% price correction, outflows remained less than 5%, indicating strong institutional interest,” Bernstein analysts said.
Furthermore, since its release in January 2024, These products have already raised more than $57 billion.
With that support, Bernstein updates his predictions. He no longer expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 this year, but instead expects a slow but sustained rise, with “a potential peak of $150,000 by 2026 and $200,000 in 2027, with a long-term goal approaching $1 million by 2033.”
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