Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 leaves BTC treasury firm $10 billion under water as one major company braces for $27 billion disaster

While Bitcoin (BTC) fell overnight to $60,233 and has since recovered somewhat to $65,443, most of the largest Bitcoin treasury firms have seen their holdings severely under water, with unrealized losses totaling nearly $10 billion across eight companies that collectively manage more than 850,000 BTC.

The calculations are most intense at the top. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 713,502 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,047 per coin, resulting in unrealized losses of $6.85 billion at current prices.

This represents a 12.6% drawdown for the Treasury, which is worth $47.4 billion in physical terms, but given the company’s size, every $1,000 movement in Bitcoin’s price translates into a $713.5 million change in its paper position.

Japanese hotel company and Bitcoin accumulator Metaplanet has $1.45 billion under water with 35,102 BTC acquired at an average price of $107,716. The 38.3% unrealized loss reflects timing risk associated with purchases near record highs in late 2024 and early 2025.

Twenty One Capital reported a $906.7 million note loss on 43,514 BTC purchased at $87,280.37, 23.9% underwater. Values ​​considered are based on a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 29, 2025.

This dataset is sourced from Bitcoin government bonds and only tracks companies whose business models revolve solely around Bitcoin accumulation.

Coinbase, Tesla, and other companies with diversified businesses cannot qualify, making this a purely belief-versus-cost-based test.

Seven of the eight names analyzed are currently underwater. The only exception is Next, who bought 5,833 BTC for $35,670.09 and still retains an 86.3% ($179.5 million) unrealized gain.

Risks of mNAV compression

The market to net asset value ratio adds a reflexive dimension to the pain. Metaplanet’s mNAV is 1.018, which essentially matches its BTC holdings, while Strategy’s multiple of 0.784 suggests that the market values ​​the company’s stock at a 21.6% discount to Bitcoin Treasury.

With 5,398 BTC and 0.329 mNAV, Nakamoto is trading at a 67% discount, representing an unrealized loss of 44.5%, despite owning a coin he acquired for $119,729.

This divergence is important because underwater treasuries often require either premium mNAV multiples or dilutive equity financing to continue accumulating. In a drawdown, the market typically demands the opposite. This means widening the discount range and increasing the hurdle rate for new capital.

Companies that continue to make profits, such as Next, retain options. They can hold, realize profits to fund operations, or deploy profits defensively.

When 40% of stocks are underwater, you face a different calculation. Holding is a forced bet that Bitcoin will rebound before the funding window closes.

increased damage

The current price of $65,443 is 51% below Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000, part of a broader crypto market drawdown that has wiped out nearly $2 trillion in value.

Earlier this week, the $2.5 billion Bitcoin liquidation accelerated deleveraging, with the Financial Times noting that prediction market odds for an outcome below $60,000 were rising.

Stifel’s technical model flags $38,000 as a cycle-style breakout target based on trendline support.

If Bitcoin continues to fall below $60,000 and declines 9% from current levels, Strategy’s losses will be $4.6 billion, Metaplanet’s losses will be $226 million, Twenty One Capital’s losses will be $280 million, and the losses will be even bigger.

At $50,000, those numbers would balloon to $11.73 billion, $577 million, and $715 million, respectively.

A drop to $38,000 would result in an additional $20.29 billion in losses, on top of the $6.85 billion already lost to Strategy alone.

Strive holds 13,132 BTC at a base of $105,850, and if Bitcoin reaches $38,000, its $517.5 million recurring loss would widen by $373.5 million.

Purchasing 5,000 BTC of ProCap for $104,219.34 would deepen the $188.9 million underwater position by an additional $142 million.

Even Next, which is still profitable at current prices, would give up $165.9 million of its $179.5 million paper profit if Bitcoin falls to $38,000, just above break-even.

ETF outflows and changes in distribution

This drawdown coincides with structural changes in Bitcoin circulation.

The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, which has been actively accumulating through 2024 and early 2025, has seen net outflows in recent weeks as institutional investors pivot to safer assets.

This reversal of trends will eliminate the major buyer groups that previously absorbed supply pressures, leaving finance companies as the dominant diamond-hand group.

But “Diamond Hands” is a story, not a fundraising strategy. Companies that grow assets through convertible debt or equity financing face rising costs and shrinking mNAV premiums.

Metaplanet’s 1.018x gives it the ability to issue shares roughly equivalent to its BTC holdings.

The strategy’s 0.784 means that every $1 raised through equity costs $1.27 in Bitcoin value on a look-through basis.

Nakamoto’s multiple of 0.329 turns the equity raise into a 3:1 dilution tax.

reflective trap

The danger lies not only in mark-to-market losses, but also in feedback loops.

Water China bonds compress mNAV multiples, increase the cost of new capital, slow accumulation, and weigh on equity sentiment, further compressing multiples.

Companies with high cost bases bought into that strength. If Bitcoin continues to fall, they will have reached the top of the cycle.

Twenty One Capital’s basis disclosed in an SEC filing is $87,280.37, 24% above current price but 13% below the strategy’s average of $76,047. It becomes a matter of timing, not confidence.

ProCap has an estimated basis of $104,219.34 and Strive has an estimated basis of $105,850, both within the same late 2024 purchase window. All three companies are currently 36-37% underwater, meaning Bitcoin would need to rise above $91,000, an increase of 37% from current levels, to break even.

What about $38,000?

If Mr. Stifel’s $38,000 goal is realized, the total loss on these eight bonds would be more than $25 billion in incremental losses from current levels.

This strategy alone would result in a $20.29 billion hit on top of the current paper loss of $6.85 billion, for a total unrealized loss of $27.14 billion. Metaplanet’s total value will be closer to $2.5 billion, while Twenty One Capital will be worth closer to $2.2 billion.

At that price, even Next won’t break even and its $179.5 million cushion will disappear. Entire cohorts are underwater and there is no choice but to hold on and wait for a recovery in which markets are increasingly pricing in uncertainty.

Pure Bitcoin Vaults bets that conviction and scale equal compound interest.

As Bitcoin rises, leverage amplifies profits, mNAV multiples expand, and stocks turn into BTC call options with built-in financial arbitrage. When Bitcoin falls, the same leverage turns paper losses into funding constraints and multiple compressions into reflexive traps.

The current price of $65,443 does not erase the paper. Instead, do a stress test.

Strategy’s $6.85 billion unrealized loss is equivalent to 12.6% of BTC’s value, which would be acceptable even if Bitcoin recovers. If not, the problem is: Who decides at what price underwater becomes unsustainable and when a conviction turns into surrender?

So far, the market, through mNAV, has delivered a verdict of premiums for high-yield bonds, discounts for underground bonds, and deep discounts for bonds with no clear exit ramp.

Paper loss leaderboards are not static. Every $1,000 move in Bitcoin rebalances, and the next leg determines whether these bonds are value traps or cycle survivors.