After a month marked by historic institutional selling and extreme macroeconomic volatility, investment firm Hashdex declares that the “Great Bitcoin (BTC) Reset” is over.
The company claims that while November was the most severe correction of the year, the market will enter a transition point in December. Autumn and signs of catalyst exhaustion converge It may promote stabilization.
For the entity, the Bitcoin market enters the final months of the year “battered but not broken.”
Hashdex highlights that Bitcoin ETFs recorded record outflows of $3.79 billion in November spill This exodus coincided with an 18.02% decline in the Nasdaq Cryptocurrency Index, which the company defined as its “worst monthly performance since June 2022.”
Hashdex highlights the magnitude of the turnaround in sentiment. “This dramatic decline, just one month after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000, demonstrated how quickly sentiment can change when institutional investor trends reverse.”
Divided positions at the US Federal Reserve (FED) have increased uncertainty. Hashdex hints at possibility of rate cut in December It ranged from 96% to 40%. This is done before stabilizing at about 90%, as shown below.
Similarly, the company recalled that the U.S. government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, “distorted economic indicators and pushed consumer confidence to its lowest level since 2022.”
Bitcoin as a digital gold story is put to the test
Regarding Bitcoin’s performance, Hashdex emphasized that the 20% decline resulted in an annualized return of 2.27%, far behind the S&P 500’s 16.45% and “gold’s abnormal 60.19%.” This contrast, he says, was “the toughest test for the digital gold story.”
The situation was further exacerbated by the company’s scrutiny, with Strategy’s 650,000 BTC positioning “under threat” due to possible removal from the MSCI index and being forced to sell up to $11.6 billion, Hasidex said.
Despite the weakness in the regulated market, the company emphasizes that on-chain metrics tell a different scenario. The report notes that the exchange’s BTC reserves decreased by 22.9% from November 19th to 25th, to 1.83 million BTC. This is the lowest level since 2018.
It also highlights that more than 102,000 transactions of more than USD 100,000 were recorded in November. The company says this is interpreted as a “transfer of patient funds accumulated while institutional products liquidate positions.”
Signs of selling pressure on Bitcoin continue
However, signs of selling pressure persist. Analysts at CryptoQuant, known as CryptoOnchain, warned that the 30-day moving average of BTC inflows to Binance reached a yearly high of 9,170 BTC on November 28th. He described this as a “significant bearish indicator.”
He also recalled that “there was a similar rally in March 2025, followed by a strong correction.” In his vision, This increase in supply on Binance is “acting as a powerful headwind.”
Heading into December, Hashdex identifies catalysts that could mark the end of Bitcoin’s reset. He said in his report that the Fed’s December 9 and 10 meetings “should provide clear direction for monetary policy.” Considering that the market already puts the probability of a rate cut at 90%, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Hashdex concludes that November “may be remembered as the Great Reset”, the month in which a year’s gains evaporated And the trust of institutional investors faced the “severest test”.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
