Bitcoin slipped to $111,038 at press, up 0.9% over the last 24 hours, but fell 2.4% over the past week as short-term speculators appear to be selling.
summary
- Bitcoin priced at around $111,000, a 10% off record on August 14th.
- New investors will surrender, but holders for 1-6 months will remain profitable.
- RSIs are closer to being sold, suggesting short-term relief.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently about 10% below its all-time high of $124,128 on August 14th. Trading activity has cooled, with 24-hour spot volume at $38.7 billion, down 33% from the previous day. The derivatives market shows a similar slowdown.
Future volume fell 40.7% to $81.5 billion, while open interest fell from 0.7% to $81.3 billion, according to Coinglass data. Price fluctuations can usually be attributed to a decline in future activity, indicating low speculative demand.
Bitcoin on-chain data shows a healthy reset
On-chain data shows that the recent decline appears to be driving away new players rather than long-term holders. In an analysis on August 27, Cryptoquant contributor CrazzyBlock pointed out that investors who own BTC in less than a month average unrealized losses at -3.5%, prompting many to sell.
This is confirmed by a significant reduction in the supply held by these short-lived addresses. Meanwhile, holders in the 1-6 month range remain profitable (+4.5%), showing little signs of stress. This indicates a concentration of sales among recent entrants rather than the entire broader short-term holder base.
According to CrazzyBlockk, this type of surrender is “constructive.” This repositions the coin from the weaker hands into a more resilient holder, reinforcing the foundation of Bitcoin’s movement.
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As Bitcoin buy/sell ratio weakens, market pressure increases
Another crypto analyst, Cryptoonchain, flagged the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s Taker Buy/Sales rates fell to the lowest point since May 2018. The ratio below 0.98 indicates sustained sales pressure.
The concern is that this ratio is currently below what was observed at the previous peak of Bitcoin in November 2021. Prices have risen, but this difference indicates that underlying buyback momentum is declining, making the market more susceptible to additional short-term declines.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The chart indicator shows mixed images. At 41, the relative strength index is closer to oversold and could provide short-term relief. Additionally, the Commodity Channel Index shows a purchase signal, indicating that Bitcoin may be stable.
Bitcoin Daily Chart. Credit: crypto.news
However, indicators of momentum and trend remain bearish. Both MACD and momentum signal downside pressure. Moving averages are similarly sloping wimps. BTC will trade below SMA/EMA for 10, 20, 30 and 50 days to strengthen the short-term downward trend.
On the plus side, Bitcoin surpasses long-term support between the 100-day and 200-day EMA, which is around $111,000 and $103,000, respectively.
If a buyer stepped into the $110,000-$111,000 range from about $110,000 to $111,000, the RSI relief could push BTC back from $115,000 to nearly $117,000. Failure to hold the $110,000 level opens the way to the $107,000-$108,000 zone, with a strong support of around $103,000 on average on 200 days.
read more: Bitcoin price forecast: Is BTC ready to rebound to $120,000?
