Bitcoin (BTC) has erased the gains made during the bullish cycle that lasted from 2023 to 2025, but crypto exchange Bybit has found something ‘roaring’, offering investors some optimism.
“Derivatives are not suited for the crypto winter,” Bybit analysts warned in a recent analysis. In fact, they point out that “there are similarities between the current and 2021 mid-cycle bullish correction.”
“The current correction signals a price movement driven by flows rather than fundamental or structural reasons,” Bybit said. He gave an example of lower volumes in crypto futures, spot and perpetual markets than what was observed in October 2025.
Similarly, Bybit experts add that the implied volatility of the Bitcoin options market is: Does not deviate from bullish cycle norms This indicator reflects the level of volatility expected by traders, which is approximately 50% over a 30-day period.
Meanwhile, in the crypto winter of 2022, it exceeded 100% during stressful times. This can be seen in the following graph.
Possible test of bullish cycle
The exchange also analyzed the ratio of implied volatility to realized volatility, which measures Bitcoin’s fluctuations. If the result is greater than 1, the market is expecting more turbulence than has already been observed. However, if it is lower than that, the opposite is true, i.e. Expectations for lower price volatility.
During the 2022 FTX crash, this ratio averaged 1.3, which is very different from today. This metric is less than 1, as shown below.
Another important metric to look at is put-call bias. This measures how expensive a put option is (put) and purchase (phone). Sell ones are used as protection against falls, and buy ones bet on increases.
In this sense, if a put is trading at a large margin against a call, it indicates strong demand for a bearish hedge. BTC puts currently command a premium of nearly 15%. Does not present an exasperated bearish scenario. In 2022, this will exceed 60%, reflecting extreme fear.
Bybit sums it up: “The positioning in the derivatives market is remarkable.” This reflects the possibility that the decline of more than 40% from the all-time high of $126,000 hit in October 2025 will be similar to that seen in 2021.
He recalled that in 2021, BTC fell by 40% compared to the previous record set in May ($65,000), and hit an even higher peak ($69,000) in November of the same year. It then entered a bearish cycle that lasted until early 2023, with a 77% decline from its all-time high.
4 year observation cycle
Virtual currency exchange position Contrary to the widespread belief that crypto is winter it’s already started. This market story is driven by both historical and contextual technological factors.
On the technical side, it stands out that Bitcoin always exits its bullish cycle the year after the halving. The latest version of this event occurred in 2024, when the amount of BTC issued was halved. According to a report by CriptoNoticias, if this pattern repeats, 2026 will be a bearish year.
Moreover, Bitcoin has already recorded two peaks in its most recent post-halving bull cycle ($109,000 in January 2025 and $126,000 in October 2025), which were punctuated by sharp declines. Unlike in 2021, this decline did not reach 40%, but it was relatively close. It was 32%.
In this sense, this move more closely resembles the movement seen in 2021 than the current correction, as it falls within a classic four-year cycle and is consistent with the trend of decreasing long-term volatility.
Contexts characterized by uncertainty
In terms of context, Technology markets are experiencing a moment of caution and risk refusal among investors. This can be seen not only in the decline in cryptocurrencies, but also in the Nasdaq 100 and technology stocks.
The threat of tariffs from the United States and uncertainty regarding the impending change in leadership of the Federal Reserve are driving this scenario. However, the agency’s new management is expected to cut interest rates, citing lower inflation. Therefore, if this happens, it could add liquidity to the economy, enter the market, and drive up the price of assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, it is estimated as follows. Developments in quantum computing will make it possible to decrypt private keys Future Bitcoin wallet development. Therefore, this concern is also impacting market sentiment. In this scenario, Strategy, the publicly traded company with the most BTC, began efforts in February to develop a solution to make the network resistant to such technologies.
Amid this sea of mixed signals, indicators and analysts are viewing the decline Bitcoin is experiencing as potentially a good time to accumulate long-term. This is based on bullish fundamentals such as its scarcity, decentralized emissions, censorship resistance, and self-control. Still, as with any asset, it’s important to anticipate and be aware of the inherent risks.
