Talk of a potential altcoin season this cycle has subsided compared to previous years, despite recent developments. Bitcoin (BTC) price decline And dominance. In particular, one cryptocurrency analyst shared a new long-term chart showing total altcoin market cap versus Bitcoin at historically pre-major alt season levels. According to his analysis, the alt market has completely reset and is ready for new changes. Fresh Altcoin Season If historical trends unfold as expected.
A historic alt season setup has formed as Bitcoin rates reach fundamental territory.
In a recent analysis of X, market expert @CyrilXBT said: shared Monthly chart tracking the ratio of the entire cryptocurrency market to Bitcoin, excluding the top 10 assets. According to the analysis, the chart is currently sitting at around 0.129, a level that analysts describe as the same base or accumulation zone that has started every major altcoin season in cryptocurrency history.
@CyrilXBT noted that this zone is where all alternate seasons are born. Altcoin Rally The rate stopped falling and started stabilizing in the $0.12-$0.13 range. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, the ratio started out close to zero and then remained flat with minimal volatility. After that, there was a dramatic surge. 2017-2018 Bull MarketIt pushed the altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio above 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons.
By 2020, the ratio had fallen below the 0.129 level, consolidating near the low-range accumulation/base zone, erasing most of the previous gains. especially, 2021 saw the biggest altcoin season spike ever. During historically bull markets, this ratio exploded above 0.55. During this period, trading volumes reached new highs, hitting a bar higher than previous years.
New Alt Season conditions take shape
Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle saw a post-peak correction and a downward trend in rates as follows: Bitcoin has regained dominance.. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin to Bitcoin ratio has finally returned to the historically significant 0.129 accumulation zone with BTC.D. falling It fell to an annual low of 57.9%.
@CyrilXBT suggested that the current positioning reflects the pre-alt season setup that led to the massive altcoin explosions of the past few years. He pointed out that the rising trend line connecting successive altcoin season highs on the chart points to a ratio of roughly 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle.
With rates stabilizing and historical trends repeating themselves, @CyrilXBT argues that recent market performance does not mean: Altcoins are dead. Rather, it shows that a complete reset of the market can be quietly created. Conditions for the next alt season.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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