Bitcoin has done what many bulls feared. They fell below six digits, topped $100,000 and even topped $98,000 in a wave of liquidations not seen since May.
According to reports crypto slateBTC fell to $98,550, with spot ETFs seeing net outflows of $278 million on November 12 and $961 million for the month so far, triggering extended liquidations of $190 million in one hour and $655 million in 24 hours.
This event turned a gradual decline into a sharp decline, with leveraged longs being unwound and the market facing on-chain support below the price.
On-chain data reveals changing market structure below $100,000
Coinbase data showed the extent of the U.S. movement since liquidations began. Bitcoin peaked at $103,988 before falling to $95,900, with its final close around $96,940, just 2% above the on-chain HODLers Wall of $95,000. The market fell from a cushion 5% above the wall to almost touching the wall.
The on-chain wall structure remains, but the price movement has changed. The cost-based distribution shows that approximately 65% of all US dollars invested in Bitcoin are above $95,000, all short-term holders have a coin price at or above that price, and 30% of the long-term holders’ supply is in the same range.
This is not thin, speculative air like the highs of 2017 or the first peak of 2021. This is similar to the denser “second wind” structure of late 2021, where veteran holders and new entrants shared the top zone and took months to resolve.
This density explains why the spot has been dragged out for so long. Last year’s U.S. election rallies attracted a wide range of buyers in the $95,000 to $115,000 range, locking them in through a year of sideways trading.
The cost basis for short-term holders had already been breached at about $112,000, and each failed attempt to restore that level left recent buyers underwater, while long-term holders sat on a tiered cost-basis ladder just below the high.
Unwinding of futures prices and ETF outflows reveal thinness of support zone
The latest cascade revealed its structure. Once the futures longs began to unwind, there was little new demand between the $106,000-$118,000 resistance area that Glassnode warned of and the psychological $100,000 handle, and ETF demand was no longer strong enough to absorb the forced selling.
The main difference at the moment is who is selling it. In 2017 and 2021, supply near the top primarily came from short-term holders. After these peaks, older, more profitable coins rotated out. Unrealized losses then reached 15% of market capitalization within six weeks, filling old air pockets.
Even though the trading price of BTC has hit the wall at less than $100,000, the unrealized loss in 2025 will be about half of what it was in January 2022.
According to Glassnode data, STH has been underwater since October against a cost base of $111,900. Their realized P&L was below 0.21 around $98,000. This means that more than 80% of the value transferred there was sold at a loss.
This is a typical capitulation by top buyers, not a widespread LTH withdrawal. CheckonChain admits that almost half of the coins sold recently were high entries and recent buyers exited as the market remained near the wall.
That’s why $95,000 still matters. It was the “failure point” of the theoretical bull cycle. Now the price is approaching it. New Coinbase data shows that BTC’s $95,900 low is located deep in the long-term holder zone, where little coin is moving. If this group is strong, the wall will be able to absorb any forced STH or derivative selling.
However, if Bitcoin cleanly loses $95,000, the roadmap is pretty clear. The first shelf was around $85,000, the low of the “tariff tantrum,” with spots hitting a local bottom amid early policy swings and temporarily backfilling some of last year’s air pockets.
Below that is the true market average of $82,000, which sits directly above the remaining gap from the US election pump and will be a natural magnet for deeper flushes. Only above these levels does the big old demand range between $50,000 and $75,000 come back into the conversation.
How is the risk profile for this cycle different from 2022?
Another important difference from 2022 is that the current price action has not reverted.
At the time, the loss of $45,000, the wall base for HODLers in that cycle, was swift and brutal. STH’s cost basis collapsed at $54,000, the $45,000 barrier provided little support, and the market plummeted to the true market average of about $36,000, crossing a multi-year air pocket dating back to the beginning of the cycle.
In this cycle, the potential decline from the wall to the average is much shorter and the potential demand from the 2024 range is closer in price. A move from $95,000 to the low $80,000s would hurt, but the multi-year deep bear market that followed the 2021 highs will not be repeated.
The short-term situation remains fragile. ETF flows turn negative, with redemptions replacing the steady inflows that have supported Bitcoin for most of the year. Perpetual funding and open interest have declined since the October leverage flush. The options market is currently paying an 11% implied volatility premium over puts versus calls, suggesting traders are hedging against the downside.
What happens next will depend more on holders owning most of the supply above or below $95,000 than on short-term traders.
If they pull themselves together, the walls can continue to function as floors, giving the market time to rebuild demand. If they break, a path through $85,000 and down towards an average of $82,000 is already drawn on the on-chain chart.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
