Bitcoin is bracing for the release of the September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24, the first major data since the federal government shutdown began.
Analysts at Kobeisi Letter highlighted the importance of the update, noting that this is the first time since January 2018 that the CPI will be released on a Friday, and just five days before the October 29th Federal Reserve meeting.
Additionally, this CPI report will stand alone as the Fed’s key inflation measure, as the Labor Department has stopped releasing all other key data until the shutdown ends.
That isolation increases risk because there is no new employment, payroll, or producer price data to balance the situation.
inflation forecast
According to the latest CPI report, U.S. inflation was 2.9% in August, up slightly from 2.7% the previous month.
With this in mind, Wells Fargo economists now expect September’s reading to rise modestly to 3.1%, but still within a range consistent with a gradual de-inflation. Core prices, excluding food and energy, are expected to remain stable, indicating that inflationary pressures are easing but not disappearing.
Across financial markets, traders are already bracing for possible policy easing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, futures data suggests a 99% chance the Fed will cut rates at its Oct. 29 meeting and an 85% chance of another rate cut in December.
In particular, weak CPI data is likely to strengthen the outlook and lead to a weaker dollar, while stronger-than-expected results could temporarily revive expectations for a rate hike.
Impact on Bitcoin
Analysts at Caushas Data said the impact of CPI on cryptocurrencies remains direct as the current “dilution of macro signals, while potentially bullish for the crypto narrative in the short term, could pose tail risks to the broader market.”
The firm said that if the core index falls below 0.3% month-on-month, it would support the dovish outlook and put pressure on the dollar, favoring assets such as gold, stocks and Bitcoin.
However, a more robust inflation outcome could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on risk assets, especially if prices for services and housing rise above 0.4%.
The company also warned that crypto markets often experience “pre-release rallies and post-publication sales reactions” as volatility spikes and funding shifts.
Meanwhile, Dean Chen, an analyst at digital asset firm Bitunix, said: crypto slate Market reaction will depend on how investors reprice risk after release.
He said if the data matches expectations, the market could sustain the current “long-term highs but stability” narrative, which could allow Bitcoin to continue consolidating near its recent highs.
However, a rise in core numbers could push up Treasury yields and the dollar, triggering a short-term correction from the cap.
Chen further added that a cooling CPI could renew ETF inflows and push Bitcoin into the $117,000-$120,000 zone, while a rise in CPI could move funds back into safer assets and test support near $100,000.
He added:
“Traders should keep an eye on real-time movements in US yields and the dollar following the announcement. A simultaneous rise in both could put pressure on Bitcoin, while a pullback could reignite risk appetite. Volatility remains high in this environment, and the sustainability of ETF inflows will determine whether Bitcoin regains momentum after the data.”
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