Bitcoin is quietly descending the liquidity ladder and the next solid step is nearing $85,000.
This number is not derived from Fibonacci retracements, moving average crossovers, or any other “gold standard” of technical analysis.
This comes from my simple grid of horizontal bands based on the factors that actually move the market, such as order book depth, leverage positioning, psychological interest points, and historical price movements. 18 months window.
Basically, these are the prices at which traders place stop loss and take profit markers.
in half an hour On the chart, these bands form a thick channel, and over the past year Bitcoin has treated them like rungs on a ladder, pausing, stalling, and reversing at the same price over and over again.
For the past month, that ladder has remained pointing downwards.
From satisfying heights to vacuum bottoms
The white band at the top is where Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000. It traded within this zone from May to October, with two small dips in September. It briefly fell when the tariffs collapsed on October 11th, but finally fell completely at the beginning of this month.
At the beginning of the slide, Bitcoin fell to a critical price point. $106,400we have talked at length. Historically, when the price drops sharply like this on the 30-minute chart, it is an ominous sign that it will eventually reach that level. And this time was no exception.
Price movements began to concentrate at the top of the narrow yellow band approximately in the middle. $112,000 and $106,400. All attempts to penetrate higher up the next white line were a struggle. This channel acted like a ceiling that continued to absorb buying pressure.
When that ceiling finally collapsed, it didn’t do so gently.
The moment the bid faded in that band, Bitcoin did what it often does on these grids. That is, we looked for the next area of stationary fluidity. decline through the lows $100,000 in the middle$90,000 It looked violent on the lower time frames, but on the channel’s map it was more like jumping from one floor to the next.
Price then spent time $97,000 – $100,000 zone. This area was already highlighted several months ago as a thick structure with orange lines. Psychological Support Level $100,000 gave up without a fight.
$100,000 to $93,000 It was a place where spot buyers had long shown interest and derivatives traders were building and unwinding positions. Again, the market treated it as a transit point rather than a destination.
As soon as that zone was exhausted, the stairs pulled Bitcoin down.
Current battlefield: Purple belt
Fast forward to the latest chart. Bitcoin is currently at a low price $90,000 and high $80,000inside the wide purple waterway.
You can see how the previous support turned into resistance. surrounding level $92,000 – $93,000caught the price on the way down for the first time, but now caps intraday bounces.
Selling gathers on each re-visit, evidence that trapped longs are doing their best to exit and that fresh shorts are leaning toward levels they trust.
The purple line below it maps a series of shelves. $89,000, $87,000then at approximately the last major one $85,000. These shelves are not optional.
These are the prices at which liquidity has consistently been concentrated since the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Market makers recycled their inventory there, whales made bids there, and funding and open interest moved there. In other words, there is a history of the market here.
Bitcoin is already located near the middle of that band. Volatility is compressed compared to waterfall movement $97,000 – $100,000 zone.
These changes in character often occur prior to the second leg, as participants wait for the market to choose a direction before taking on new risks. If the selling pressure returns, there is not much of an obstacle between the current price and the bottom of the purple channel.
why $85,000 problem
of $85,000 There are three reasons why this region stands out.
beginningrepresents the deepest liquidity pool within the current purple band. Surrounding level density $85,000 – $86,000 This suggests that many historical positions are concentrated there. Markets are drawn to such magnets, especially after a series of failed attempts to reclaim high ground.
Number 2the path between $89,000 and $85,000 It’s relatively clean on the grid. Fewer intermediate bands means that once the current shelf collapses, the price has room to accelerate until it meets the next chunk of orders.
Recent history supports that idea: Break Under $110,000 It did not fall in a gradual trend and was airdropped into the next meaningful zone.
thirdreaching that level completes a measured movement that mirrors the front leg. $109,000 – $103,000 area. Markets often move symmetrically as they seek out new pockets of liquidity. Traders monitoring these structures may see the following $85,000 As a logical completion point for the current sequence.
None of these guarantee a visit. What it provides is a roadmap. If Bitcoin continues to honor the same grid it has respected for over 18 months; $85,000 It will be the next destination in a story that has already had several chapters written.
What’s under the purple floor?
Even if Bitcoin tags the bottom of the purple channel, the story doesn’t end there. The grid expands further into a landscape of green lines starting from the perimeter. $84,000 And please reach higher $70,000.
If that band fails, attention shifts to the pink cluster in between. $77,000 and $74,000. Next you will see a purple channel. In this channel, the lines are once again closer together in that area, visually suggesting that the market has spent more time trading there in the past.
In my opinion, this is a significant price. This is where Bitcoin hit a new all-time high just before the last halving, just above its 2021 high. $73,000 This will act as a ceiling until 2025 and could very well become our support lifeline in 2026-2027.
Long-term holders who view Bitcoin’s current correction as a buying opportunity may have the remaining bid in their pockets. Short-term traders who sold the breakdown $100,000 You may choose to keep your profits there.
Recommended for people with a weak constitution I’m looking away now.
The last line on my map looks like this $49,800. That level marks the lowest critical shelf of the current structure. If the market reaches that level, sentiment is likely to be wiped out.
But from a channel perspective, it is still part of the old liquidity pool and not a journey into uncharted territory.
If we are currently in a bear market, it could bottom out around this price. $49,800 is a level that has been heavily defended at times over the past two cycles.
If this were the case, it would likely cause extreme panic not only among Bitcoin users but also among new ETF buyers. It will feel like the sky is falling for bulls who bought into 2020 and beyond, or those who don’t use dollar-cost averaging.
Personally, I like $73,400 as the bear market floor for this cycle. I feel like the more realistic it is, the more bearish it is. This region has history, fluidity and support.
A roadmap, not a prediction
The key to using these channels is discipline. They are not saying Bitcoin has to go down. $85,000or can’t come back in the first place $97,000 or $100,000. They provide a way to view the market as a series of expected reaction zones rather than a random walk.
The story of the 30-minute chart at the moment is simple.
Bitcoin has been cascading down from one liquidity ledge to the next for several weeks. It now teeters within the purple corridor that has hitherto been difficult to position. The bottom of that hallway is nearby. $85,000and the layers below are in the low range. $80,000 and the middle 70,000 dollars, Already marked.
If the sell-off continues, these are the places where the market is most likely to slow, consolidate, and reverse. For traders who know how to position themselves around such moments, the map is already drawn.
None of this is intended to be personal financial advice. These are the price points to watch for Bitcoin’s next move. It just so happens that Bitcoin has consistently tagged them since the beginning of 2024. Satoshi doesn’t know what will happen next.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
