Bitcoin’s price structure signals have turned negative, with the bull-bear index indicating weaker spot demand and increased derivatives pressure, leaving BTC in a risk-off, bearish regime until the signals recover.
summary
- The Adler AM Structural Shift Composite Index has fallen to -0.5 on a scale of -1 to +1, suggesting a bearish regime as Bitcoin price trades in the lower band of the 21-day Donchian Channel.
- The bull-bear index shows that the bullish regime component is near 5% while the fast bearish component is turning negative, suggesting that short-term derivatives positioning is dominating the weak spot bids.
- For the regime to return to risk-on status, the bullish component would need to recover above 5% while the composite index rises above zero, otherwise a break in support could accelerate a deeper correction.
Bitcoin price is currently trading around $86-87,000, down about 3-4% over the past 24 hours, with 24-hour volume in the mid-$30 billion to $40 billion range, indicating a bearish situation of selling a pullback tape rather than aggressive bull buying.
During the day, BTC is near the bottom half of its recent 24-hour range, with derivatives data showing negative short-term performance and red 24-hour returns on major dashboards, which fits a risk-off session amidst an already soft environment.
Bitcoin price heads into negative territory
The analysis said the fast component of the bull-bear index indicates increasing pressure from the derivatives market, while the composite structural signal is moving into negative territory.
The Structural Shift Composite Index, which measures market structure on a scale of -1 to +1, fell to the -0.5 level, the report said. Values below zero indicate that a bearish regime is prevailing. Data shows that Bitcoin price has fallen to the lower bound of the 21-day Donchian Channel and is trading near channel support.
According to the analysis, the bull bear index, which divides market pressure into bullish and bearish components, shows that the bullish regime component has fallen to 5%, and the rapid bearish component has entered negative territory. The fast component reflects the dynamics of short-term derivatives.
The composition of the index indicates that near-term momentum favors bearish positioning and spot demand is not yet sufficient to offset pressure from the futures market, the report said.
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According to Adler AM, both indicators indicate a structural transition into bearish territory, confirmed by the composite signal and the dynamics of the bull-bear regime. The analysis noted that negative signal values indicate that a combination of structural factors such as trend, momentum, and positioning are shifting in favor of the bears.
The key reference point for a regime change is for the composite signal to return to a level above zero and at the same time the bullish component of the bull-bear to rise above the 5% level, the report said. Analysis shows that until such a recovery occurs, the structure will remain in risk-off mode.
$BTC – #Bitcoin: Can I hold and go back from here? pic.twitter.com/gpvCq898v5
— CryptoFella (@CryptoFellaTx) December 15, 2025
The main risk mentioned in the report is the intensification of derivative pressure on support breaks, which could accelerate the correction. From a pure token structure perspective, this is not a clean “buy area”. Unless the data reverses, this is distribution-to-range territory, and a pullback toward previous resistance looks more like a place to reduce risk than to add risk. Funding and futures performance is trending risk-off on a 24-hour basis, with BTC trading around 25-30% below its euro-denominated peak from October, and a slightly negative 2025 return following last year’s over 120%, all consistent with excess holdings maturing and clearing the surplus rather than starting a new impulsive leg.
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