The price of Bitcoin (BTC), measured per ounce of gold, is undergoing a significant period of decline. In fact, we’ve experienced six straight months of declines, a move that goes back even further, barring the months of recovery that preceded it.
14 months ago, in December 2024, each Bitcoin was worth 41 ounces of gold. caused a downward trend. It recovered in mid-2025, but only reached 36 oz. Then it fell into a continuous month-on-month decline.
The following graph shows this behavior.
However, this pattern is not surprising for the market we have experienced so far. Rather, it generates some enthusiasm. Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded after long-term trends like this..
“The average duration of a BTC/gold bear market is about 14 months,” emphasized Andre Dragos, head of European research at crypto fund issuer Bitwise. In this sense, he claims to be “already there,” as shown in the following graph.
In that case, will there be a rise in Bitcoin price? Well, if this pattern repeats, it might. In any case, this means it has better performance than metals, but it is not currently included in analysts’ general forecasts.
Gold purchases are on the rise
“Central banks are betting the most on gold. ETF flows have not changed in four years, so we are far from saturating demand,” says Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol Investments.
For experts, anything above USD 5,000 per ounce triggers FOMO (fear of missing out) purchases among retailers. “As long as the world continues to print fiat currency at a rate of 10% per year, we can expect the prices of real assets such as gold to continue to rise,” he warns.
Gold hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $5,100 on Monday. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit a one-month low of $86,000 the previous day. It is currently trading around USD 88,000, 30% below its October ATH of USD 126,000.
Russ US President Donald Trump’s actions facilitated this panorama. Earlier this month, he ramped up pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates and threatened to impose tariffs on imports if countries don’t accept the deal.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions suggest that gold will continue to rise. In adverse circumstances, interest is usually earned as a hedge of the value reserve. Limited extraction capacity facilitates valuation according to demand.
Bitcoin is also a hard asset due to its scarcity (its issuance is halved by half every four years), but it has not yet exploded as a haven in times of stress. Their lifetimes are still short compared to metals, and this is exacerbated by risks such as quantum developments that could crack private keys.
Stock market recovers despite headwinds
Other concerns are currently growing in the market, such as the rise in Japanese government bond yields reported by CriptoNoticias. This situation is detrimental to investing in variable return assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
However, it doesn’t have much of an impact on the stock market at this point. Although it fell, it has rebounded and is approaching its all-time high. In other words, the situation has not yet weakened risk appetite. Enabling Bitcoin Rise Against Gold.
But some believe that as risk aversion increases, rare assets such as gold and Bitcoin could benefit as a hedge. In this sense, the uncertain situation regarding the near-term macroeconomic future is sending mixed signals and operators are showing caution.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
