Bitcoin is likely to rebound after five months of losses, and some traders think the bears may face their first real test this cycle.
Oversold conditions are gaining market attention
Bitcoin rose above $70,000 on Tuesday, sparking social media chatter in what market intelligence firm Santiment describes as “FOMO territory.”
Positive discussions across social media plunged on Monday, then recovered sharply as prices rose.
The change was fast. According to Santiment, cryptocurrency markets tend to move quickly during periods of uncertainty because they operate around the clock and are not tied to a single government or financial system.
Image: Tanganica.com
The recovery in oil prices was triggered in part by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said the conflict with Iran was “very complete.” This is a sign that tensions in the Middle East may be easing.
As a result, oil prices fell. This gave cryptocurrency traders something to work with.
Immediately after President Trump’s remarks, an article was posted on Truth Social warning that the United States would increase military pressure on Iran if oil supplies were cut off.
🤑 Bitcoin sentiment plunged back into FOMO territory after the market cap exceeded $70,000 on Tuesday. Across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other cryptocurrency-related discussions, crowds were encouraged by Trump’s remarks that the war would soon end and oil prices would reverse. pic.twitter.com/S21cXOUM0F
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 10, 2026
Mixed signals did not stop the Bitcoin rally, but they added uncertainty that traders cannot ignore.
Add fuel to the strategy’s large purchases
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Australian cryptocurrency investment manager Merkle Tree Capital, said the geopolitical backdrop was not the only factor driving the improvement in investor sentiment.
He pointed to continued institutional buying, including Strategy, which bought nearly 18,000 bitcoins last week and made its second acquisition earlier this week.
It was also important for Bitcoin to remain above its February lows. The data shows the asset has fallen steadily from an all-time high of $126,000 in October. This is technically the fifth consecutive month of declines.
According to McMillin, this extended slide could set up a relief rally without a major catalyst.
“Shorts are vulnerable,” he said. “Liquidity on the short side could be squeezed to $80,000 before a materially higher or lower decision point emerges.”
He also pointed to cooling inflation, a new Federal Reserve chair expected in the coming months, and the Clarity Act nearing implementation as tailwinds that could support prices.
Extreme fear still dominates broader indicators
Not everyone reads that moment the same way. The Crypto Fear Greed Index, based on volatility data, market momentum, social media signals and Google Trends, hit 15th on Wednesday, deep in “extreme fear” territory. That reading runs counter to the optimism that appears in Santiment’s social traces.
Google Trends data for ‘Bitcoin’ stood at around 71 as of Wednesday, down from a peak of 100 on March 5, suggesting retail interest has cooled from recent highs even as prices have recovered.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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