A new academic study found that failures in nearly nine out of 10 underwater internet cables over the past decade caused little or no disruption to the Bitcoin network.
Random Failure Vs. target cut
The study, published in February by Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance researchers Wenbin Wu and Alexander Neumueller, tracked 68 cable fault incidents identified between 2014 and 2025.
Data shows that 87% of these incidents took less than 5% of Bitcoin nodes offline. The impact on price was essentially non-existent. The correlation coefficient between cable failure and the market value of Bitcoin was found to be -0.02. Researchers describe this figure as statistically insignificant.
This study is the first to examine Bitcoin’s exposure to physical Internet infrastructure over a long period of time.
Source: Wenbin Wu, Alexander Neumueller
Using a country-level cascade model built on peer-to-peer network data, researchers have begun to answer questions that have haunted the cryptocurrency community for years. In other words, what actually happens to Bitcoin if the Internet takes a serious hit?
At least their answer for random failures is: There aren’t many. Before more than 10% of Bitcoin nodes go dark, between 72% and 92% of all undersea cables connecting countries around the world would have to fail.
Undersea cables carry approximately 99% of international Internet traffic. To reach this failure threshold would require a complete, near-catastrophic collapse of the global Internet infrastructure. However, the situation changes dramatically when the error is intentional.
Image shows map of the world's undersea cable network. Source: SubmarineCableMap
Choke points present a different problem
A targeted attack on a specific cable chokepoint can cause significant disruption with far fewer cuts. Officials said researchers have found that the critical failure threshold falls between 5% and 20% when attacks target high-traffic connection points. This threat is described as being roughly 10 times more powerful than a random failure.
The gap between random and targeted risks is the most striking finding in the report. This suggests that exposure to Bitcoin’s physical infrastructure is not evenly distributed.
Some cables are much more critical than others, and a well-coordinated hit on the right connection can cause damage that wouldn’t have been caused by years of accidental power outages.
The geographic diversity of Bitcoin mining, which expanded significantly after China’s crackdown in 2021 led to the expansion of operations to other countries, has done little to change this situation.
The report found that infrastructure strength tracks the physical cable routes rather than where miners are located.
Tor adds a layer of complexity.
One factor in Bitcoin’s favor is the widespread use of Tor, a privacy-centric routing system that bounces traffic through a chain of servers to mask the user’s location.
According to the report, 64% of all Bitcoin nodes are virtually invisible to outside observers due to Tor adoption. These are details that complicate any efforts to map and target networks.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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