Bitcoin over $120K: 3 Data Point Bulls must watch next

Bitcoin costs over $120,000, and there is easy-to-read data on the market instead of just a vibe.

It passed the key $120,000 level on October 2nd, and after an A+5.5% rise from September 29th, it approaches nearly $120,606, and holds the level even in small givebacks. Surges in spot prices are not isolated acts.

The Bitcoin ETF printed approximately $676 million on October 1, approximately $676 million on October 2, and $627 million on October 2, shortly after a messy spill around September 25-26.

At the same time, futures and options recovered rapidly in October. Open interest on BTC futures rose from $772.2 billion on September 29th to $885.2 billion on October 3rd. The volume continued, with futures turnover rates rising from $485.9 billion on September 29 to $1112.2 billion on October 2, with exchange activities rising mid-week.

The combination of work, fresh derivative exposure and spot demand due to intense sales will be set further in quarter.

The ETF shakeout in late September is important as it resets positioning and reverses to creation soon after. Earn daily days of over $600 million in net inflows, the primary market will absorb the coin and force approved participants to raise BTC.

That tightening appears at a price faster than it appears in the headline. It also changes daily liquidity. It generally expands when the work is active and the arbitrage changes to a two-way street again.

If the flow remains net until next week, the spot side will not need a permanent hero to maintain $120,000. You will need a crafting machine to continue grinding.

As OI does not add $11.3 billion in four sessions without new positions, the rise in futures OI across the same window is more than just a shorts cover. Pair it with a volume spike (over $100 billion in a row for October 2-3 at the listed venue), and there is a classic “add risk to strength” tape.

Options tell the same story: +Since September 29th, +$10.5 billion OI pushes dealers into bigger hedge bands. If $120,000 to $122,000 accumulates open interest next week, expect more sticky price action as the market approaches those levels until new levels clear call blocks and passes.

Funding is the third leg, showing a clear flip of premiums last week. PERP funding will be negative on September 27-28 (-0.12% and -0.07% every day), holding +0.20% on October 29, +0.63% on September 30, +0.38% on October 2, +0.79% on October 2, and 0.79% on October 3, +0.67% on October 3.

The average for the seven-day period is about 0.35% per day, while the last three prints average a much higher temperature +0.61%.

Combined with an increase in futures OI of +11.3 billion, it means Long is paying, and leverage is tiered. As long as the creation of ETFs continues to pull coins and the foundations of the Spotfuture are well-organized, that’s a plus.

If the work fades while the funds increase this, Carrie will turn to a long tax and become vulnerable to a fast average return or clean-out. If creation remains positive, the market can digest these funding levels without forcing pressure.

So, what really matters about the price?

First, ETFS. The outflow in late September showed distribution, while the inversion on October 1 showed new demand was back. If the daily total is held in the range of $20-400 million, then $120,000 should trade like a floor more frequently than a ceiling.

Secondly, spots – Future Base. Spot-intensive futures jumps are constructive as long as the foundations are not crowded. The gradually expanding foundation is fuel for orderly and orderly driving. A surge in foundation during ETF Flows Cools is a warning that carry over owns it.

Third, optional arrangements will be made until mid-October. The market has rebuilt over $10 billion in OI in just a few days. If its concentration settles around a narrow strike band, expect more “magnet” price action and lower realized volatility until the catalyst breaks down the pins.

Keeping these three dials in perspective will give you a clear view of the fourth quarter market structure. Creation tells you whether the real coin is off the open market. What is the futures OI and foundation, please tell us how much leverage is layered at the top, and how stable it is. Option oi and dealer gamma will tell you where the daytime range will tighten or break.

The readings are now constructive. Prices are repurposed at $120,000 on back-to-back ETF creations, adding the risk of futures without rewinding, and options are thickened. If funding is kept in order and net creations don’t roll over, immersing yourself in something as low as $120,000 should attract buyers.

If your work stalls during fundraising and the foundation gap is widening, expect a more choppier tape and a faster average return. Q4 starts with the board tilted upside down, but the scoreboard you watch is an optional band that currently raps around $120,000.