It’s almost impossible to start a conversation with Venezuelan trader Alberto Cárdenas without first asking, “What do you think of Bitcoin?” This was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market has always been astute, which has allowed him to predict bearish or bullish movements in the past.
Although he does not have a crystal ball for clairvoyance or fortune-telling, the analyst believes that Bitcoin has not yet abandoned the four-year market cycle, 2026 will be a bearish year, the alt season is no longer what it was before, and most importantly: Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) is expected to be updated As early as November.
The only condition for the latter is that the U.S. Supreme Court reverses all tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which would be a severe blow to North American economic policy.
“It is possible that the court could rule against the tariffs and block the whole issue. If that happens, there could be a short-term impact of a weaker dollar because the US would have to repay all the tariffs it has imposed so far. That would create a situation that would trigger price increases for Bitcoin, gold, and assets that are negatively correlated with the dollar,” Cárdenas explained to CriptoNoticias.
What experts recognize is that the market is in the following situation. Leveling process with bearish bias due to reduced liquidity The macro environment is also not good.
He believes that once macroeconomic conditions change, such as tariff issues and the end of the U.S. government shutdown, there will be a bullish rebound for Bitcoin.
It must be remembered that on October 6th, Bitcoin reached its historical highest price, valued at $ 126,000 per unit, and this fact is reported by this publisher. However, the digital asset is currently struggling to stay below $100,000.
Bitcoin completes 4-year cycle and enters bear market
There are multiple opinions in the crypto ecosystem: If he Traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle Terminated or still valid.
Those who no longer consider it see that institutional investment and new regulations, mainly from the US, have changed that, and that the “three-year bull and one-year bear” characterized by halvings is no longer fulfilled. Cardenas is on the other side.
This cycle has been achieved with great precision in the past, and if we understand that stage of the cycle, we should now be approaching the historical maximum. To me, given the variables of the cycle and a bearish year for BTC in 2026, I believe the market is close to a ceiling. We need to prepare for a difficult 2026 for Bitcoin and it will be fixed.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan trader
What it does ensure is that when you look at the global macroeconomic panorama, the current situation is different from past cycles. Regarding this point, he pointed out that: The most important variable is that liquidity is not abundant It happened in the previous cycle as well.
“There is global uncertainty right now,” he said. “There are important questions about the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that went into effect in August. We don’t know how the economy will react in the coming months.”
Regarding the alt-season, our interviewees are adamant that the alt-season is no longer what it used to be. His view is that there is a rotation in the world of cryptocurrencies that is not supported by liquidity.
“Right now we are seeing something like the rise in ZCash, which is incredible, but an asymmetric and punctual rise in some currencies, but while we are seeing weakness in XRP, we are seeing weakness in other currencies. What is there is an internal rotation that usually happens in almost all markets.”
Commenting on the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, Cárdenas said that although such situations usually do not have a big impact on the market, this time it has been longer than necessary, so it is necessary to take into account factors such as the lack of transparency in official data.
Venezuelan stock market and tokenization
Cárdenas was always thinking Venezuela as a “laboratory” for virtual currencies. This is because, as this week’s editorial points out, the country has taken multiple paths in the world of digital assets in recent years: from regulation, adoption, and mining bans, to the creation of its own token (Petro), to the current frenzy surrounding USDT, the Tether stablecoin.
Beyond this reality, the trader sees the country potentially starting to engage in the tokenization of real world assets (RWA), which could open the door to an unprecedented market.
In fact, as he commented, the Caracas Stock Exchange already has educational involvement with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
“A course on tokenization was held recently, but the possibility of a project of this type has not yet been confirmed. “I think it is very interesting that, for example, the Caracas Stock Exchange is committed to seriously understanding the issue of tokenization,” the analyst added.
Considering the global trend of digitizing real estate, financial products and even artwork, Cárdenas said: Rethink your business as this financial business space is likely changing.
I think the old model based on transaction fees, as practiced by brokerages, is dying out. In my opinion, that is ending and business is becoming more efficient. The business needs to move on to other things, maybe storage, security, maybe consulting or something, but that old trading business there’s no business there anymore.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan trader
When asked what areas Venezuela might consider tokenizing, he said real estate is a “very interesting area.”
“That would give fluidity and liquidity to an inherently illiquid market.”Other areas he sees potential include the agro-industrial sector, commodities, inventories and shares in companies listed on the stock market.
“The scope is huge, but we always have to think about the positive impact it could have on the country. “If it gives liquidity and dynamism and ultimately becomes a bridge to attract foreign investment.”
(Tag Translation)Bitcoin (BTC)
