Bitcoin’s fifth halving is about two years away, but the mining sector is heading into it with far less margin for error than in 2024, as higher costs, tighter energy markets and clearer regulation reshape the industry.
The last halving in April 2024 will see Bitcoin ($BTC) Traded for around $63,000 as compensation fell from 6.25 $BTC up to 3.125 $BTC Block by block, Coingecko said. At the next halving in April 2028, miners will face an increase in the input cost of new coins by half, as the reward drops to 1.5625. $BTC. In a world of record hashrates, higher energy prices, and more selective capital, this looks even tougher.
Energy security has also become a strategic concern after geopolitical shocks shook fuel and power markets, while regulators from Washington to Europe are moving from ad hoc guidance to formal regimes around storage and authorized institutional platforms.
These pressures are forcing miners to act less like pure Bitcoin agents and more like energy and infrastructure companies, monetizing reserves, cutting costs, and reallocating capital ahead of the April 2028 halving.
This shift is also changing the way investors value the sector, with money increasingly flowing to operators who can secure long-term power and build infrastructure that goes beyond mining.
Balance Sheet Shows More Tough Cycle Before Halving
Miners have already started making adjustments. MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 Bitcoins in March to reduce leverage, Riot Platform sold over 3,700 Bitcoins $BTC In the first quarter, Cango sold 2,000 units $BTC This was in order to repay the debt backed by Bitcoin, and BitDeer announced that as of February 20th, its Bitcoin holdings had dropped to zero.
Behind these sales is a widespread reset in the way miners think about hardware, power, and capital. The 2028 halving will arrive in “an environment that bears little resemblance to 2024,” Juliette Yeh, head of communications at Kango, told Cointelegraph.
He pointed to widening efficiency gaps that “force us to make real decisions about fleet upgrades” and a shift to long-term energy contracts across multiple regions rather than pursuing lower rates.
“There’s less space in the middle now,” she says. “Operators with scale and diversification will be fine, but those without will find the next halving very difficult.”
GoMining made a similar point. CEO Mark Zalan told Cointelegraph that “capital discipline is more important than hashrate maximization right now,” and new developments will need to meet stricter return criteria.
Related: Mining companies go deeper into AI, HPC as MARA may sell Bitcoin
From a mining pool perspective, some of the underlying dynamics remain familiar even as pressure increases. “In fact, there are very few fundamental differences between this mining cycle and previous mining cycles,” Alejandro de la Torre, co-founder and CEO of Stratum V2 pool DMND, told Cointelegraph. “The same dynamics repeat themselves.”
He expects mining hotspots to peak and then consolidate, opening the door to further decentralization as mid-sized miners expand into new energy alliances, as “no region can maintain an advantage for long.”
Related: Genius Group liquidates Bitcoin treasury to pay $8.5 million debt
Business models change beyond pure block rewards
The economics heading into the next halving are also shifting away from pure block rewards, which are “less of a business than before,” Zaran said. He predicted that stronger operators would focus on their power and data center businesses and earn additional revenue through power reduction, grid services and heat reuse.
Cango is already building towards that model. “The facilities that will be important in five years are those that can do multiple things,” Ye said, deploying sites that use mining to meet capacity while switching between AI workloads and hashing power.
Regulation, once seen primarily as an overhang, is increasingly becoming part of the investment case. Zaran pointed to more specific rules on custody and banking access in the United States, alongside the European Union’s MiCA regime and new exchange-traded funds (ETFs), derivatives and payment rails from Hong Kong, arguing that “if these rules are clear and available, capital will move faster.”
Zahran said this background is shaping both how miners are financed and how financial institutions are looking at the next round of issuance cuts. He said he doesn’t think the market has “fully priced in the next halving,” arguing that scarcity will see “a stronger ecosystem around Bitcoin by the time 2028 arrives.”
While Ye said investors are already reevaluating miners with high-performance computing contracts, and sees those operators trading at “more than double the revenue multiple of pure miners,” de la Torre believes backing large, established operators is “no longer the only logical path.”
If miners riding on Bitcoin’s price strength are rewarded in the 2024 cycle, operators who can manage debt, secure power, and build the infrastructure to earn revenue beyond block subsidies could be at an advantage until 2028.
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