Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3% to $98,550.33 at press time, falling below the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the third time this month amid a chain of leveraged liquidations, sustained ETF outflows, and widespread risk-off behavior across digital assets.
The decline accelerated after Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 support, causing more than $190 million in long-term liquidations in the past hour, according to data from Coinglass.
Bitcoin could not break through The $106,400 level, which turned from support to resistance earlier this week, is causing concern. About what’s going to happen. However, every time it loses that level, it has always rallied around the psychological $100,000 support, or at least the $99,000 support created in June.
Total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $655 million, amplifying the downward momentum as overleveraged positions were unwound.
Ethereum fell 5.75% to $3,218.37, Solana fell 5.2% to $145.55, and BNB fell 3.2% to $922.90, reflecting simultaneous selling pressure across major tokens.
Institutional investor demand slows, ETF flows turn negative
The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $278 million on November 12, contributing to cumulative redemptions of approximately $961 million this month, according to Pharcyde Investors.
The shift from net inflows to gradual outflows will remove a key stabilizing factor that supported prices until mid-2025, making spot markets even more vulnerable to derivative-driven volatility.
Historical patterns suggest that reversals in ETF flows often coincide with stages of consolidation rather than periods of directional certainty.
A November 12 analysis by Glassnode confirmed that Bitcoin has been trading below the short-term holder cost threshold of $111,900 since early October, establishing a bearish regime characterized by low liquidity and low confidence.
The realized profit/loss ratio for short-term network holders was below 0.21 at around $98,000. This indicates that over 80% of the realized value was due to coins selling at a loss, representing the intensity of the capitulation beyond the last three major washouts of the current cycle.
Glassnode identifies the sub-$100,000 zone as a key battleground where seller exhaustion is starting to take shape. However, a sustained recovery would require Bitcoin to regain its cost base of $111,900 as a support level.
Sentiment worsens due to lower leverage
Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates remain subdued across major exchanges, with both funding and open interest rates trending downward since the October leverage flush.
The lack of active positioning reflects market hesitation, with traders avoiding directional bets as volatility expectations remain high.
Options market data reinforces this defensive posture. The put protection trade is priced at an 11% implied volatility premium over the short-term expiration call, indicating that traders continue to pay downside insurance premiums.
Open interest is concentrated around the $100,000 strike price for the end-November expiration, a key threshold above which dealer hedging flows could amplify volatility.
Recent option flow has focused on puts between $108,000 and $95,000 strike prices, structured as full protection or calendar spreads that capture expectations of near-term disruption.
Glassnode’s cost-based distribution heatmap reveals a tight supply cluster between $106,000 and $118,000, indicating that investors are in a position to exit around the break-even point.
This supply overhang creates natural resistance and the rally can stall unless new inflow absorbs the distribution pressure.
The company notes that demand from short-term holders, which reflects the momentum of new investors, has been significantly weaker since June 2025, reflecting the lack of new capital flowing into the market.
Despite the recent resolution of the US government shutdown, rising real yields and persistent funding stress weighed on speculative assets, while broader risk sentiment worsened along with a decline in cryptocurrencies.
Morgan Stanley’s recent “Fall Season” note advised clients to harvest profits rather than chase upside at this stage of the four-year cycle, leading to a decline in institutional investors’ risk appetite.
The combination of heavily leveraged positioning, weak demand for the ETF, and structural resistance above the current price turned each breakthrough below $100,000 into a self-reinforcing cascade.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
