Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the market:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing. We bring you a daily summary of the top news US time, as well as an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US market, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is slipping into a weaker market structure as the steady bidding that supported the price at the beginning of the year gives way to declining demand and a defensive position.
CryptoQuant wrote in a recent note that the cycle’s core demand wave has passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury buying evaporating, and Strategy purchases falling to their lowest levels this year.
While this does not mean a collapse is imminent, CryptoQuant argues that the bull market is likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges, meaning upside room is becoming increasingly limited.
Polymarket traders take positions around that weakness, giving them the best chance of heading towards 85,000, with little emphasis on the upside scenario.
Glassnode added that short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest pace since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative, derivatives markets have moved into full risk-off mode, options traders are accumulating puts, and implied volatility is rising.
Against this backdrop, Glassnode points to active investor cost thresholds around $88,600 as the next big test for the market.
If the move continues below this level, recent active investors will suffer losses for the first time this cycle, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. The next support lies near the true market average of $82,000, which Glassnode describes as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bear market structure similar to 2022 and 2023.
The coming weeks will show whether buyers regain confidence or whether support is lost and the economic downturn becomes more entrenched.
market movements
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly falling below $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market nervous as it searches for support.
Ethereum: Ether was trading around $3,038, declining slightly on the day as it continues to track Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.
gold: Gold is trading around $4,067 after hitting an intraday high of $4,132 as risk aversion spreads across the market.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday as Nvidia’s strong earnings report boosted semiconductor stocks, pushing the Nikkei Stock Average up 3.7%.
