Bitcoin (BTC) leads its path into a fluctuating market. Last year, the price was a roller coaster. It fell 23% over the past two months, but achieved a 37% rebound if considered the past six months.
The dance of this number is not noticed by analysts, and one of them, Motti Sapir, a financial market expert, maintains a clear vision. Bitcoin is on the route to much higher prices in this same bullish cycle.
To sapir, The key to understanding Bitcoin’s behavior lies in its cyclical nature.. “It moves in cycles and people usually get hooked on the latest price fluctuations instead of analyzing common panoramas,” explains the economist.
In his opinion, Markets tend to respond to short-term movementsignores the background trends that are converting Bitcoin into more than speculative experiments.
Bitcoin hit a historic maximum of $109,300 in January last year, the past $109,300, but as you can see in the following graph, it faces a fall that has been maintained between $78,000 and $87,000 so far in March.
«Bitcoin is more than just another asset. It is becoming a legitimate alternative to valuable traditional financial reserves,” he says.
According to analysts, the transformation is due to two main factors. Government institutional adoption and growing interest. Although BTC companies and investment funds have accumulated, some countries are beginning to see it as a viable component in their economic strategy.
Therefore, Sapir believes that the current price level represents a purchase opportunity. Project trajectory to $120,000 or $150,000 over the next few monthsthere is a long-term possibility that could go well beyond these numbers.
“Short-term noise” should be ignored
However, the market does not always share this optimistic vision. Sapir points out that investors usually see “short-term noise” instead of the foundation.
A clear example is Bitcoin-based ETFs, financial products that played an important role in price. When they were launched in January 2024, the huge entrance to capital caused the price of BTC. But Money Outputs, one year after their debut, produced a major setbackespecially between February and March, as seen in the following graph.
It should be taken into consideration that ETF performance directly affects Bitcoin prices. Managers of these funds buy BTC to support the stock. However, if investors withdraw money, these companies sell a portion of their holdings, Increase offers and push downward value.
Sapir sees it differently, but some interpreted recent capital output as a negative signal. «These ignore the natural evolution of new financial products. Early stage volatility is expected».
Investor’s biggest error
According to experts, one of the most common mistakes among Bitcoin investors is allowing short-term volatility to banish the market. Notable falls that exceed 25% in weeks or daysThey create restlessness that leads many to assume that the worst hasn’t come yet, financial analysts say.
However, Motti Sapir emphasizes that the story tells another story. Not far from signs of collapseThese fixes have repeatedly made the beginning of a critical recovery noticeable.
Detailed Bitcoin behavior analysis supports this perspective. The attached graphics show this phenomenon: Each red dot shows a 25% or more drop in BTC price..
The sense of bearishness of the time shoots, fear dominates, and many investors choose to sell. However, historical patterns reveal that these hastily discovered are usually premature.
Bar below the second graphic Returns after these waterfalls were consistently positiveparticularly during the period of six months to two years. Furthermore, the grey lines highlight another fact. In other words, in most cases, Bitcoin’s value exceeds its level before it collapses in a different time perspective, proving its resilience.
«In the short term, it’s easy to get carried away with fear. However, in general, these falls were more purchasing opportunities than alert signals. The market tends to respond with an exaggeration, but the data makes clear what it is. Buying from weakness was a victory strategy for those willing to wait».
Motti Sapir, economist and financial analyst.
A new chapter in uncertainty
This adds another factor that supplies uncertainty: the cost of Bitcoin mining. Rising prices of electricity and commercial tensions between the US and Canada; It created fears about the profitability of miners.
Canada, an electricity exporter to the US, faces complex commercial relations after President Donald Trump’s policies.
This is what has also led to the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical conditions and global economic uncertainty They usually affect the priceespecially in moments of commercial tension, such as those caused by Trump’s policies, as reported by encryption.
These challenges are authentic, but Sapirator them as part of Bitcoin’s natural economic cycle.
Government role and impact on Bitcoin prices
Beyond market fluctuations, Sapir refers to the elements that we consider to be undervalued. Bitcoin’s new role in global finance.
“The government is increasingly debating Bitcoin in ways that could not have been thought of five years ago,” he says.
The iconic case is the United States, which has taken concrete steps to integrate digital currency into its national strategy. Last January, he signed an executive order. Ordered to establish a strategic Bitcoin Reserve and establish a Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee in the White House.
This advice includes instructions to begin the process of establishing a reservation. Working with Parliament on the Cryptoron Act Coordinating with regulatory bodies.
With these measures, the US is looking to establish itself as a future leader where Bitcoin could become a pillar of the world economy. “The elites are betting on Bitcoin,” says Sapil.mentions both government and large institutional investors..
If this sovereign adoption trend is integrated, economists believe that the current price of BTC looks like a retrospective bargain. “In the short term, it’s easy to get carried away with fear,” he admits.
But he claims The recent waterfall was a purchase opportunity for those who viewed historically for the long term. “The market responds with an exaggeration, but the data shows that buying moments of weakness is a winning strategy,” he says.
Possibility of bullishness: Number of talks
Bitcoin is challenging traditional valuation models that force analysts to seek alternative metrics. One of Sapir’s favorites It is a relationship of stock flux, measuring the lack of assets based on its distribution offer and its emissions rhythm.
This relationship will be reduced by half after the next half that takes place in 2028. This is an event scheduled for Bitcoin code that reduces miners’ rewards every four years. In past cycles, this mechanism has caused a significant price increase.
According to the current Stockfuruho model, Bitcoin is undervalued at least 50%. This means fair value of over $120,000.
Chain data enhances this paper. Long-term holders have reached record levels and reflect the solid trust of those who understand the foundations of their assets.
at the same time, The exchange’s Bitcoin reserve is at least a few yearsreduces available offers and precedes the increase, usually driven by rarity.
Mixed feel and wind of changes
Panorama is not exempt from contradiction. Market sentiment leads to optimism and attention.
On the one hand, the accumulation of the system is still ongoing. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of regulatory authorities Mining related costs remain vigilant for some investors. But Sapir relativizes these concerns: “In previous bear markets, similar stories emerged, and Bitcoin always reached a new maximum when the dust settles.”
The risks of the horizon
There is no guarantee in the Bitcoin world. Regulations remain unknown that could change the game. The impact is surprising when governments impose serious restrictions on exchanges, managers or miners.
Meanwhile, volatility continues to be a barrier to low-risk investors. Institutional adoption can stabilize it over time, but as happened with money, the process is still under development.
Liquidity is also worth paying attention. However, ETF output generated sales pressure in early 2025. Bitcoin could be consolidated as a more robust asset if institutional demand continues to increase.
Evolving currency
“Bitcoin is not perfect, but it has no assets,” says Sapir. He says that what distinguishes it is his unique combination of absolute shortages with a 21 million currency limit, an adoption that barely began to take off.
Half, institutional benefits, between potential government support; Economists see a clear path to $120,000 or $150,000 If sovereign adoption accelerates over the next 12-24 months, there will be a much higher roof.
While short-term investors deal with turbulence, long-term commitments may be facing historical opportunities. Bitcoin continues to go against expectations, along with his ups and downs and an aura of mystery.
(tagstotranslate)Bitcoin (BTC)
