At first glance, this looks like something out of the back pages of a newspaper, but these are Japanese government bonds with ridiculously long maturities of 20, 30, and 40 years.
Even if you own Bitcoin, you’re still within explosion range.
This is because when Japan’s long-term government bonds begin to wobble, it is rarely a problem unique to Japan. It’s about how the world’s last big source of cheap money is slowly turning into something more expensive, and what happens to every trade that secretly relied on that cheap money.
The moment the atmosphere changed
Japan has spent most of the past few decades as a place where money is almost free. This shaped the world market in thousands of small ways, even if you had never bought a Japanese bond in your life.
Now those days are fading.
In December, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years, as part of a broader shift away from the ultra-low policy that defined Japan’s strategy since the 1990s.
The move is important because Japan is not a small player. It is a base for fundraising. This is a reference point. It’s a place where investors around the world can borrow cheaply, hedge later, and point to when they want to look for returns elsewhere.
When that cheap anchor starts to rise, the market corrects, sometimes gently, sometimes all at once.
A signal that people cannot ignore, a long bond cries out
New warning signs are being raised by ultra-long-term bonds at the extreme end of Japan’s yield curve.
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield exceeded 4% for the first time, reaching around 4.2% amid mounting selling pressure. Additionally, recent 20-year government bond auctions showed weak demand, with the bid-to-bidding ratio of 3.19, below the average for the past 12 months.
Even if you don’t live in the bond world, it’s like a detailed trader’s circle surrounded by thick markers. Auctions are where the market reveals how much real demand exists for the bonds being issued. As demand starts to decline at the long end, investors will start asking tougher questions about who the marginal buyers will be going forward and how much yield Japan will have to offer to continue to raise money smoothly.
The second data point makes the change seem less instantaneous. Japan’s 30-year government bond yield rose to about 3.46%, a significant increase from about 2.32% a year ago.
This is a slow-motion look at regime change, one bid, one basis point, one nervous headline at a time.
Why will cryptocurrencies become involved?
Crypto loves to talk about things outside the system. The price still exists in the system.
As interest rates rise, especially long-term rates, the entire market is forced to rethink how much tomorrow’s cash is worth today. Higher yields raise the bar for all risky bets: stocks, private credit, ventures, and even Bitcoin.
BlackRock candidly stated in a recent note on cryptocurrency volatility that Bitcoin, like gold and some emerging market currencies, has historically shown itself to be sensitive to the real rate of the U.S. dollar, even though its fundamentals are not dependent on a country’s economy.
So if a move in Japan spills over into global yields, Bitcoin could react before anyone can finish explaining the math of bonds on TV.
We have already seen a version of that movie recently. Global bonds sold off after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish comments, and Bitcoin fell 5.5% in the session, extending its monthly decline to more than 20%.
That’s the bridge between “Tokyo bond auction” and “Why is my crypto portfolio bleeding?”
Yen carry trade, the quiet mechanism behind the drama
There’s a plumbing story here, and it’s more important than the headline.
For many years, one of the simplest transactions in international finance was to borrow in yen at a very low interest rate and invest that money in other high-yield assets. It does not always appear as one clear position that can be pointed to. It appears in the background as a source of steady demand for risk and yield.
If Japan tightens its rules, the background will change.
If the yen appreciates or funding costs rise, the carry trade may be unwound. Unwinds tend to be tricky as they are subject to risk limits, margin calls and crowded exits.
The Bank for International Settlements investigated the August 2024 burst of volatility and unwinding of carry trades, explaining that large foreign exchange carry positions were particularly sensitive to spikes in volatility and were forced to unwind rapidly.
You don’t have to believe that cryptocurrencies are “part of a carry transaction” to understand this relationship. We just need to accept that when leverage is taken out of the system, the most liquid risk assets are often the first to sell, and Bitcoin is one of the most liquid risk assets on the planet.
The story of Japanese bonds is also a political story, and politics moves yields rapidly.
The long end of Japan’s curve also responds to policy uncertainty. The rise in 40-year bond yields is tied to investors’ concerns about snap elections and fiscal plans, the kind of political catalyst that could turn a gradual downturn into a sudden selloff.
The market tolerates many things, but it hates guessing games about bond issuance, spending, and future buyer pools.
If investors begin to suspect that Japan will become more dependent on the bond market and do so while the central bank is less aggressive in suppressing yields, they will demand more compensation. Rising long-term bond yields often reflect this: markets are willing to pay more for their time and uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency angle that will outlast today’s price movements
The enduring question is simple: Will Japan’s transformation leave global financial conditions tighter than markets expected?
If the answer is yes, then the cryptocurrency’s upside will be limited, rallies will be more volatile, leverage will be more vulnerable, and any flare-ups of risk will be felt more acutely.
If the answer is no and Japan’s transition remains orderly, the bond market will cease to be the main player and Bitcoin will return to normal trading with a combination of liquidity, positioning, and narrative.
There are several forward paths worth mapping, but none of them require anyone to act as if they can predict Bitcoin candlesticks.
Three scenarios to watch next
1) Orderly normalization
Japan will continue to gradually raise rates, the bond market will absorb the rate hikes, bids will remain decent, yields will remain high, but they will no longer act like panic meters.
In this world, pressure on cryptocurrencies is manifesting as a steady headwind. Higher risk-free returns compete with the appetite for speculation. Bitcoin could still survive, especially if other forces turn to support, but the market continues to focus on real yields.
2) Auction stress turns into global tantrum
More subdued bidding, more headlines about demand, and more volatility in the long run.
Global yields soar, hurting stocks and cryptocurrencies as relative value traders adjust and investors worry about repatriation flows.
A recent example has already been recorded, with global bonds falling following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish signals and Bitcoin falling 5.5% on the day.
This scenario tends to look like a forced sale. The fundamental tone becomes background noise.
3) Policy response calms the market
Japanese officials have reacted strongly to the disorderly move, issuance options have changed, bond buying operations and guidance have been used to dampen volatility, and yields have stopped surging.
Just by removing sources of stress, we can alleviate the current situation in the world. Bitcoin reacts in the same way that it often does when the market feels pressure from interest rates and funding is decreasing.
The important point is not that Japan will “support virtual currencies,” but that expectations for global liquidity will change.
A simple dashboard, showing you what to see when you want to know the fastest
If you want to stay ahead of the story, you don’t need 20 metrics. You need a handful.
- Yields on Japan’s long-term government bonds, especially 30-year and 40-year bonds.
- 20-year and 30-year auction strength (including bid multiples).
- USDJPY, as carry dynamics are often the first to surface.
- U.S. real yields, as Bitcoin has a history of reacting to them.
- As volume rises, carry positions can be unwound quickly, causing volatility to spike.
Where stablecoins fit, overlooked side channels
This part is overlooked in much cryptocurrency coverage.
Cryptocurrencies have their own internal currency systems, and stablecoins act like cash registers. When monetary policy shocks hit traditional markets, stablecoin liquidity can also fluctuate, changing the crypto market landscape even if the on-chain narrative remains the same.
A BIS working paper on stablecoins and monetary policy found that while US monetary policy shocks stimulate the development of both crypto and traditional markets, traditional markets are less responsive to crypto shocks in the opposite direction.
This confirms the broader point that cryptocurrencies are more downstream of macro funding conditions than we would like to admit.
Why does this “Japanese story” keep appearing on Bitcoin charts?
Somewhere in Tokyo, there are insurance companies and pension managers staring at the same problem everyone is staring at: yields are rebounding, and with it comes volatility.
Elsewhere, crypto traders in New York and London are glancing at the price movements of Bitcoin and wondering why all the attention is being paid to the price movements of Japanese government bonds.
Here’s why.
After decades of maintaining the price of its currency, Japan is changing its price. That adjustment extends to every corner where leverage and risk exist, and cryptocurrencies are right there, liquid, global, always open, and always ready to react.
If the Japanese bond market remains calm, the runway for cryptocurrencies will be cleaner.
If the Japanese long end continues to send out stress signals, the market will continue to learn the same lesson: Bitcoin trades based on the future, and the future is priced into its yield.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
