Bitcoin (BTC) currently has the longest deviation from the S&P 500 index in the past six years. While major stock market indicators of the U.S. economy maintain relative strength near their highs, Bitcoin is deepening its correction cycle away from its historic highs reached in October of last year.
This breaks the correlation trend observed since the start of the COVID-19 global health crisis in January 2020, an event that marked the last period of decorrelation.
The current movement of digital currencies has changed the price structure of assets. The current price on Monday, March 23, 2026 is approximately $71,812, down 43% from the all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6th.
In contrast, the stock market has not capitulated on the same scale. The S&P 500 closed on Friday, March 20, 2026 at 6,472 points. This is a slight 7.5% decline compared to this year’s high of 7,000 points on January 28th.
Typically correlated to the S&P 500, Bitcoin instead “moved in the opposite direction for several months, marking the longest period of decoupling from stocks since 2020,” explains an analyst who identifies himself as “Darkhost” at data platform CryptoQuant.
This separation became even more serious after the mass liquidation incident late last year. “For reference, on October 10th, the market removed approximately 70,000 BTC from open interest, returning to levels not seen since April 2025,” the researchers elaborate. The day was decisive, as the market was hit by a wave of liquidations in just 24 hours. Selling pressure accelerates as sales exceed $19 billionas reported by CriptoNoticias.
The graph below confirms decoupling with the red stripe at the end of the timeline. The purple line (S&P 500) remains high or is rising slightly, while the black line (Bitcoin) indicates a sharp decline. The blue area of this zone is below zero, confirming that Bitcoin is no longer keeping pace with the traditional stock market.
This image shows another red band in early 2020. This was the last major period in which significant decoupling occurred.
Commenting on the current differences in the movements of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, Dirkforst said: “This divergence highlights how much the digital currency market was already suffering long before the S&P 500 began its recent correction,” the expert added of Bitcoin’s nature in the face of the global crisis. “We have to recognize that Bitcoin remains less resilient and more volatile, making it more sensitive to these types of events.”
Who will follow whom?
The current scenario reveals that the relationship between the traditional technology sector and digital currencies is not an immutable constant. Historical data reflects that this is the most significant distancing since the last major decoupling period recorded six years ago.
This proves that this correlation is not permanent and can suddenly break down in the event of a liquidity crisis or certain events that affect the market.
It remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 will eventually follow in Bitcoin’s footsteps and undergo a more severe correction, or if, on the contrary, the digital currency will recover lost ground and return to the general market trend.
