as bitcoin BTC$90,849.73 The stock has fallen below $91,000 amid President Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric, but data from decentralized trading venues suggests the price crash could get even more severe in the coming months.
Traders at Derive.xyz, a decentralized protocol for on-chain options, perpetual products, and structured products, see a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June.
“The options market shows a clear downward bias, with a probability of 30%.” BTC There is a 19% chance that it will fall below $80,000 by June 26th, but rise above $120,000 during the same period,” Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk.
Options are derivative contracts that allow you to bet on the price of Bitcoin, like a side bet on a sports match. Here’s how it works: You pay a small fee to finalize your “what if” transaction. if BTC Above a certain predetermined price level, you win big by buying low. That’s the call option.
If it falls below a pre-set level, you can earn cash by selling it higher. It’s a put option. In either case, if the market does not move as expected, you will lose your entry fee and premium.
It is this crowdsourced price speculation that reveals the 30% probability of concern. BTC Less than $80,000.
Such a move would send prices to their lowest level since April 2025. BTC The price soared to $75,000 as President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on imports from other countries, rattling global markets.
Concerns about tariffs resurfaced over the weekend when President Trump threatened to impose 10% tariffs on imports from 10 European countries over his opposition to plans to seize Greenland. Bitcoin has since fallen from $95,000 to $91,000.
Dawson said these geopolitical tensions could lead to even bigger losses.
“Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe, particularly around Greenland, raise the risk that a regime change could lead to a return to a more volatile environment, a move that is not currently reflected in spot prices,” he said.
He explained that option skew, which measures the price difference between call and put options, remains negative, indicating short-term downside concerns. Activity on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit suggests the same.
Both Derive and Deribit have significant concentrations of put option open interest at exercise in the $75,000 to $80,000 range. This means we can expect a drawdown in the mid-$70,000 range.
