Bitcoin prices entered 2026 in a battle between the same buyers and sellers that kept the price depressed until late 2025. Prices have been almost flat for the past 30 days, down about 0.6%, indicating that neither side is in control.
Compared to the previous year, it is still down about 7%. This pressure balance reached a stalemate. However, if the right conditions present themselves, a 1% or even 3.5% move from here could determine the next direction.
Buyer and seller pressures collide inside a symmetrical triangle
Bitcoin trades inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. This shape indicates that the market is caught between low and high prices, suggesting a conflict between buyers and sellers. Capital movements are not helping the upside.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been trending downward since December 10th. For those who aren’t familiar, CMF measures the amount of money flowing into and out of a property. While BTC price has been in an uptrend from December 18th to December 31st, CMF has hit new lows and is currently showing a bearish divergence. This suggests continued capital outflows and selling pressure.
Capital Outflows: TradingView
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This negative capital flow is partially offset by foreign exchange outflows.
Changes in the exchange’s net position indicate that coins are leaving the exchange. It often indicates accumulation. The exchange outflow amount on December 19th was approximately 16,563 BTC. By January 1st, they had risen to 38,508 BTC.
Growing buying pressure: Glassnode
This is an increase of approximately 132%. Pushing the coin out of the exchange helps stabilize the price and protects the lower trendline of the triangle.
Smart money highlights indecision
Smart Money Index measurements confirm the lack of direction. The Smart Money Index compares how large an informed trader’s positions are relative to the broader market. The line is closely attached to the signal line and there is no clear separation. This suggests that large traders are waiting for a breakout and have not bet in either direction yet.
Even the smart money isn’t sure: TradingView
The triangle remains neutral until a breakout occurs.
This matches what is in the CMF and exchange flow data. Signal pressure flows out. Support for exchange withdrawal signals. These cancel each other out and maintain the BTC price. And even the most informed traders don’t know who will win.
Heatmap and Bitcoin price levels reveal trigger window
A cost-based heat map highlights clusters where the most buyers made their last purchase. These clusters often act like support or resistance. The nearest resistance zone is around $88,082 to $88,459, where there are around 200,035 BTC.
BTC Heatmap: Glassnode
Bitcoin is trading around $87,480. If the day’s closing price increases by about 1%, the price will move above that zone. That could act as the initial bullish trigger and conclude the upper triangle break. On the BTC price chart, the level matching this cluster is $88,300, which needs to be broken first.
In the short term, it looks like the downside level will become stronger (it will be harder to break out). The nearest high-cost basis support is at $84,449 to $84,845, leaving around 396,645 BTC there.
Support cluster for BTC: Glassnode
On the price chart, the closest level to this cost-based support is $84,430. Bitcoin price would need to fall by around 3.5% to test this territory. Therefore, bearish validation lies lower and requires more moves to confirm.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
The chart and heat map match. A break above $88,300 will be the first bullish signal. If the closing price of the day is cleanly above, the focus changes to $89,500 and then $90,690. After losing $84,430, the setup flips completely to the downside, indicating that the seller has won the battle.
The post Bitcoin faces its biggest battle in 2026 — a 1% move can solve forever appeared first on BeInCrypto.
