Holdings data tracked by Wallet Pilots shows funds traded on Bitcoin spot exchanges are at a pace to hold more than 1.5 million BTC by the end of the year if the current inflow rate continues. This will allocate more BTC to the ETF than most estimates of lost coins, resulting in around 1.4 million BTC.
As of August 13, the US spot ETF has approximately 1.296 million BTC, representing almost 6.5% of its circulation supply. Over the past 30 days, there has been a net addition of about 17,393 BTC to all funds. This means that if maintained, it will promote total ETF holdings to the 1.5 million mark by December.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has the largest share, managing around 744,500 BTC. This position accounts for approximately 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply and has been built since its launch in January 2024.
With an average pace of around 4,300 BTC per month in recent months, IBIT alone can add around 130,000 BTC in the spare by the end of the year, with the flow remaining stable, with more concentration within a single issuer.
The accumulation of ETFs coincided with Bitcoin’s transition to a fresh record high of around $124,000. This was achieved amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
These funds manage more than $50 billion in assets under management over a year. The stable inflow surpassed the new Bitcoin issuance from mining, which is close to 450 BTC per day after half of April 2024, tightening floats available in the secondary market.
In the current monthly average flat inflow scenario, ETFs will add approximately 70,000 BTC to their cumulative holdings by the end of the year. For example, if flows accelerate and double to about 34,000 BTC per month, ETF reserves could exceed 1.6 million BTC.
Such a scenario could deepen the impact on tradable supplies and increase the sensitivity of price to macroeconomic development and fund-specific investor flows.
The concentration of holdings within only a handful of funds also affects market structure. ETF baskets hold a large amount of Bitcoin that most shareholders cannot directly redeem the underlying coin, so the effective liquidity available in exchange could remain constrained even if secondary market ETF shares change their hands. This dynamic can shape price discoveries as ETF demand becomes a larger share of total trading volume.
The influx has been consistent over the past few months, but it is not guaranteed to continue at the same pace. If the state of a macro changes, or if you make a profit at a higher price, your net flow can be slower or reversed. Regulatory developments such as adjustments to ETF redemption mechanisms and broader changes to securities laws remain variables likely to affect trajectories.
In the next four months, we will determine whether the spot ETF will pass the 1.5 million BTC threshold. Currently, milestones appear within reach and add another layer to the interaction between the institutional product and the underlying digital asset supply.
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