The US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of approximately $1.29 billion in 12 trades from December 15th to December 31st.
The quiet holiday period provided one of the cleanest stress tests yet of how “sticky” the category is, with trading desks thin on staff and portfolios in place before the calendar flips.
The movements were not evenly distributed. According to Pharcyde, the period saw total inflows of approximately $812 million with just two positive days, Dec. 17 and Dec. 30, while the rest of the period had total outflows of approximately $2.1 billion.
The tape sounded like a familiar year-end routine to those who have watched Risk cut into the holidays. The difference is that the “marginal” push and pull is now contained within a single daily paper that can shake out hundreds of millions of dollars.
This is important as major allocators are starting to treat spot ETFs as their primary on- and off-ramps for Bitcoin exposure. This pulls the story out of the old code cycle framework.
Standard Chartered positions ETF flows as a more important driver than the current system’s halving cycle. This approach transforms “who’s buying and who’s redeeming” into day-to-day macro information rather than niche market details.
The biggest takeaway during this holiday period was that the outflows were not limited to the usual legacy redemption story. IBIT is often treated as a core allocation instrument and accounted for about half of the net outflows in our sample.
This feels different than a window where GBTC redemption does most of the work on its own. This is especially noteworthy given the disparity in prices between services.
Here’s how netflow concentrated across the period shown: This breakdown follows the same far side rules for daily net subscriptions and redemptions.
| fund | Net flow ($ million) | Percentage of net outflows |
|---|---|---|
| it goes | -639 | ~49.5% |
| GBTC | -169 | ～13.1% |
| BITB | -169 | ～13.1% |
| ARKB | -106 | ~8.2% |
| Others (combined) | -208 | ～16.1% |
| total | -1,291 | 100% |
On a per day basis, vacation duration did not decrease linearly. December 17th saw inflows of approximately $457 million, followed by December 30th with approximately $355 million.
These two sessions were not enough to offset several days of sharp outflows. The largest included December 15 (approximately -$358 million) and December 31 (approximately -$348 million).
Simply put, the market has had two chances to rise in response to demand for ETFs. The rest of the window remained tilted in the opposite direction.
Price action conveyed the same constrained message. Bitcoin remains in a tight range, trading around $89,000 as ETF outflows weigh on momentum.
Net outflows of $1.29 billion translate to about $89,000 in Bitcoin, which translates to a net selling pressure of about 14,500 BTC. This is the number behind the scenes that explains why the market feels heavy even when there is no panic.
There is also a calendar story under calendar story
Year-end can force position health that has nothing to do with long-term conviction, such as rebalancing after a strong quarter, risk budgeting for periods of low liquidity, and exiting basis trades where the math no longer works.
The reason the market is paying more attention now is that spot ETF flows tend to concentrate their execution in predictable windows. If liquidity is thinner than usual, the impact on prices can be amplified.
Kaidaka documented how ETFs have changed the structure and intraday patterns of the spot market. This is a reminder that the size of your flow is only part of the story, the rest is determined by timing.
Macro policy is in the background, and December did not signal a complete handover to 2026. The Fed continued to focus its messages on data dependencies and the “scope and timing” of adjustments.
The Associated Press reported that the decision was met with unusual opposition. As a result, interest rates continued to fluctuate even as the market tried to read what would happen next.
At the same time, the dollar is heading for its steepest annual decline in years. This backdrop is often treated as a tailwind for Bitcoin, but it wasn’t enough to overwhelm the holiday ETF hemorrhage.
One way to think about next quarter is to treat December as a test to see if the category acts more like a structural allocation or more like a two-way trading valve.
Even if the pressure of the holiday season was due to end-of-year cleaning, there could be a snapback in January as books are reopened and financial institutions rebalance towards targets.
If the move is made with rate-sensitive positioning and compressed carry, the flow can remain choppy. Bitcoin can continue to trade like a macro-risk asset whose headlines overfit the daily print press.
Standard Chartered also noted that institutional buying has been slower than expected.
This becomes important in early 2026 as it suggests that the committee’s pace and risk budget could reverse the bullish narrative, even if Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains unchanged.
Investors were also reminded that the “core” products can still be used tactically.
So far, the clearest fact pattern is also the simplest. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF ended the period from December 15th to December 31st with net outflows of approximately $1.29 billion.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
