Bitcoin is reacted as expected The conflict between the United States and Iran continues a pattern that has always been present during previous geopolitical escalations. Cryptocurrency prices are digesting the latest developments and analysts are comparing the current price structure to similar moments in 2022 and 2023 when Bitcoin first sold off before embarking on a strong recovery.
War headlines and 20-40% rally pattern
Recent geopolitical tensions We are already facing a vulnerable time. For the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is already down 48% from its all-time high and is set to close its fifth consecutive red monthly candle. The major cryptocurrency has also had its worst start to the first two months, falling 24% since January. February ended 14.8% below its opening price, making it the third worst February in Bitcoin history. The only weak February was in 2025, when Bitcoin closed 17.5% below the open, and in 2014, when the monthly close was 33% below the open.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows Weekly chart shared Describes how Bitcoin has behaved during previous diplomatic escalations. When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin fell and then rose about 40% in the months following. After Israel attacked Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin was initially sold off again, but later recovered about 25%.
Now, following the US attack on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has once again reacted downwards. The question Pillows raises is whether the same post-shock recovery pattern will reemerge.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On
Another analyst, Sherlock, Focus on short-term responses. He pointed out that in the past when the United States or Israel attacked Iran, Bitcoin typically plummeted over the weekend and recovered within 24 to 48 hours.
After Iran attacked Israel in April 2024, Bitcoin fell 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, a 3% decline was erased within 24 hours.
A 6% drop in June 2025 due to the US strike was recovered by Sunday, before rising 62% over the next two months to a record high in October. Interestingly, the initial decline in each case occurred before traditional financial markets reopened.
The market has already corrected significantly
It is important to note that the current setup is different from previous episodes, as Bitcoin has already seen a strong rally during the geopolitical shocks of 2025. Today’s market structure looks very different. Bitcoin has been in a downward trend for a long time. For 5 months.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently It is the lowest level in history. Fear and greed indices were also released. Extreme fear for 22 consecutive days. Additionally, leveraged positions have decreased significantly. Public concern about low readings.
In previous cases, panic selling followed geopolitical events themselves. However, this time most of the forced sales and deleveraging appear to have occurred before the strike. Following these warnings, most weak hands have been kicked out and excessive leverage has already been eliminated. Therefore, Bitcoin may not be able to sustain its long-term downtrend due to tensions and may stabilize sooner than in previous episodes.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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