Bitcoin cycle theory is dead, top analysts say

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, is one of the most well-known cryptocurrency analysts, opining that the “Bitcoin Cycle Theory” is officially dead.

Ju apologized for his infamous “Bull Cycle Is over” call.

“If my forecasts have an impact on your investment, I will sincerely apologize. I will be more careful about forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights,” he said.

In early April, Ju wrote a controversial post where he said the Bitcoin Bull Cycle was over. He argued that even large purchases from strategies and other things couldn’t outweigh the prices as the market was simply overwhelmed by sellers. As prices had failed to respond to new capital, Ju said Bitcoin was in the Bear market. Analysts predicted that Bitcoin is unlikely to meet in the short term.

At the time, cryptocurrency was changing hands near the $80,000 level amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs. In May, Bitcoin eventually rallied at $112,000, then reached its current highest price at $123,236 in early July. This means that those who listened to Ju’s advice may have missed out on about 54% of their profit.

“I feel that trading is pointless.”

Addressing his misguided predictions, Ju said the trading now feels pointless as the holder outperforms the traders.

“In the last cycle, the whales were sold to retailers. This time, the old whales are sold to new long-term whales. The institutional adoption is bigger than I expected,” Ju said.

A typical bull cycle (whale accumulates and eventually sells when retailers participate) is dead. Currently, older whales are sold to new long-term whales (such as finance companies). Ju admits that his main mistake is ignoring this change.

At the same time, Fidelity’s Julian Timer recently commented that Bitcoin continues “very closely” into a four-year cycle.